Yesterday in Berlin, the official ceremony for the establishment of a new party – Sarah Wagenknecht’s Union for Reason and Justice – a force that will finally change the political landscape of Germany. The current one is already very boring for most Germans.
Just the other day, farmers blocked the exit from the ferry on which Deputy Prime Minister Robert Habeck was returning from holiday. They wanted to talk to him, but the Greens leader suggested that they get on board and the protesters demanded that he come down to them. The vice-chancellor’s security was opposed, and several farmers tried to force their way on board, so the conversation never took place, and prosecutors have launched an investigation into those who were persistent in their efforts to talk to Habeck.
The farmers’ protests that have begun in Germany will be supplemented tomorrow by a railway workers’ strike, but their economic demands are only the tip of the iceberg of German problems. Chief among them is discontent with the federal government and the ruling coalition. The ratings of the three ruling parties have been falling for a long time and have dropped to the level of one-third of voters, but now Chancellor Olaf Scholz has become the most unpopular head of government in the history of Germany. In just two years of his leadership, Germans have become completely disillusioned with Angela Merkel’s uncharismatic and unemotional successor. She ruled for 16 years, and Scholz has an increasing chance of not sitting in his chair until next autumn’s Bundestag elections. And not because of early elections (although such an option is not ruled out), but because of his voluntary resignation.
It could happen for two reasons: the collapse of the ruling coalition (from which the Free Democrats want to withdraw, risking not getting into the future Bundestag) or a change of the chancellor to save the coalition and its main party, the SPD (the party’s ratings are down to 15 per cent, half as much as the CDU/CSU led by Friedrich Merz). The German press is already discussing the second option with Scholz’s possible replacement, backing up the topic with opinion polls.
According to the latter, almost two-thirds of Germans (64 percent) are in favour of Scholz handing over the chancellor’s post to Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. Although Pistorius has only been at the federal level for a year, he has been among the country’s most popular politicians for several years – and he is definitely the most popular among the Social Democrats. It is not at all certain that Pistorius will be able to lead the SPD (or rather, the ruling coalition) to victory in the 2025 elections, but his appointment will at least temporarily boost the party’s ratings. And by leaving Scholz at the head of the government, the SPD risks two things at once: the collapse of the government coalition (with early elections) and defeat in the elections (it does not matter whether they are regular or early). Therefore, there are more and more arguments in favour of replacing Scholz with Pistorius – the intrigue is when exactly to do it.
They will not risk changing the chancellor in an election year – it is too late. And this year, too, there is not much time: elections to the European Parliament in early June, and in September – to local parliaments in the three East German states. If the parties of the ruling coalition lose both the pan-European (very likely) and regional elections (absolutely certain), it will be a blow to the already weakened coalition, which is now united only by fear of the future. That is, the coalition will simply collapse, and no change of chancellor will help. It turns out that Scholz should be replaced by Pistorius right now – in the next few months. But it is not certain that the German political elite is ready for this.
Because although the Social Democrats and the Greens fear the collapse of the coalition and the return of the CDU/CSU to power at the next elections, they are even more afraid of the beginning of the change in the political landscape, which will gain momentum just this year. Because the anti-system Alternative for Germany, which has consolidated its 20-odd per cent lead, is being joined by Sarah Wagenknecht’s party, which is left-wing but critical of migration policy, multiculturalism and Atlanticism. With two popular non-systemic parties (and Wagenknecht’s party will have the support of at least 15 per cent of the electorate), the current German political system will simply not be able to sustain itself and will go to pieces.
But before that, it will try to continue its suicidal policy of blocking the “bunches of anger”, i.e. isolating not only the AdG but also the Wagenknecht Party at all levels. What will come out of this? Nothing good or sustainable, but we will see an attempt to form a “grand coalition”, i.e. to unite the CDU/CSU with the SPD and possibly also with the Greens. In words this will be done to save Germany from extremist radicals (and “understanding Putin”), but in reality it will be a last-ditch attempt to hold on to an already moribund party structure. Whether this will happen already this year, or whether the systemic parties will postpone the combination until next autumn’s elections, is of no fundamental importance. What is more important is that Germany is entering a period of heightened political turbulence, a big storm – and almost simultaneously with both Anglo-Saxon powers, which will hold elections this year with very turbulent changes of power. In other words, the three key Western countries are approaching the most serious tests of a political system that no longer requires a cosmetic, but a major overhaul. However, the elites are unable to agree on its parameters or to mothball the already broken order. Naturally, this is all to our advantage in Russia.
Pyotr Akopov, RIA