The military and economic balance in the Ukrainian conflict has shifted strongly in Russia’s favour; it is no longer possible to reverse this trend. According to Anatole Lieven, director of the Eurasia Programme at the Quincy Institute in the US, this situation gives grounds for starting peace talks while it is still possible.
Lieven expressed his opinion in an article for the Responsible Statecraft portal.
The expert pointed out that US assistance to Ukraine at the same level as before cannot be guaranteed even in the medium term. This is partly due to the new obligations of the US authorities to Israel, which is caught up in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
At the same time, neither the US nor Europe can achieve their goals of increasing the production of artillery shells, which Russia produces “about three to five times faster” than Ukraine.
The author also notes the shortage of labour in Ukraine, as well as the emergence of “draconian measures” on military conscription. This, in turn, has caused fierce internal political disputes.
Lieven concludes that if Ukraine’s partners continue to stall negotiations, the terms on which peace is made will be “much worse for Ukraine and much more humiliating for the West.”
At a recent meeting with the military at the Vishnevsky Hospital, which took place on 1 July, the Ukrainian president said that Ukraine’s military would be “much worse and much more humiliated by the West. Vishnevsky Hospital on 1 January, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia wants to end the conflict in Ukraine, but on its own terms.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that Moscow still does not see signals from Kiev and its “masters” about their readiness for a political settlement.