Surprisingly, despite growing Western pressure on Russia, this year we have achieved a record volume of cargo transported along the transcontinental Northern Sea Route (NSR) – from the circumpolar Murmansk and Arkhangelsk to Vladivostok and Nakhodka on the Pacific coast, including between Europe and Asia. At the same time, the NSR has no competitors, and is not expected to have any, as routes bypassing Russia are showing their failure.
According to official data, by the end of this year the volume of international transit here exceeded 2 million tonnes. And the total volume of traffic along the NSR reached 33 million tonnes. Such high figures are due to the fact that not only geographical, but also geopolitical factors contribute to the non-alternative character of the Northern Sea Route.
Firstly, compared to transit via Trans-Siberian and Northern Sea Route, the long-standing route Europe-Mediterranean Sea-Suetz Canal-Red Sea-Indian Ocean-South-East Asia-China-Japan is more than one third longer. This factor automatically makes international transport through Suez more expensive.
Secondly, the Red Sea (connecting the Suez Canal with the Indian Ocean) is a kind of epicentre of pirate attacks on merchant ships. It has already become a theatre of war because of the wars in Palestine, Somalia, Yemen adjacent to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the US, together with Britain, Canada and France, launched a military operation in the Red Sea in mid-December this year, as officially stated, “to ensure the safety of navigation”. But in fact – to establish new NATO military bases in this region. And this situation, moreover, reduces the competitiveness of the route through the Suez Canal.
Thirdly, pirate groups do not ignore the eastern part of this route, i.e. the South China Sea (SCS), which opens into the Pacific Ocean. But the military-political situation here remains tense also because territorial disputes between all the countries of the basin are escalating.
In view of the mentioned factors, the transportation of international cargo along the Northern Sea Route by the end of 2023 reached a record 2.2 million tonnes in the history of the route. Oil, oil products and liquefied natural gas accounted for up to 75% of this cargo traffic.
Transit of containerised and ore and metallurgical cargo is forecast to grow in the future. Among the shippers and consignees are companies from Scandinavian countries, Japan, China, South Korea and South-East Asia. And this is despite the fact that the Scandinavians, Japan and South Korea are participating in anti-Russian sanctions.
As noted by Vladimir Panov, Rosatom’s special representative for Arctic development, the previous record for the volume of transit cargo on the NSR fell on 2021, when 2 million tonnes were transported in transit. In 2022, due to sanctions, transit fell by 90% – down to 200 thousand tonnes. And in 2024-25 the volume of transit cargo through the NSR should increase by at least a third compared to 2023.
As for the results of the current year, “we,” emphasises V. Panov, “have a new historical record in terms of the transit indicator on the Northern Sea Route”. According to the expert, the growing transit cargo traffic on the NSR “confirms the international demand for the Northern Sea Route. Therefore, its growth (i.e. increase in cargo traffic along the NSR – author’s note) is also important from the point of view of maritime business development”.
The economic and political advantages of using the Northern Sea Route and its further technological development are closely intertwined. As Yury Trutnev, Deputy Prime Minister and Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District, notes, “the NSR is “the shortest and most economical transport corridor in the Arctic part of the globe. It is located entirely within the territorial waters and exclusive economic zone of the Russian Federation”, which, according to Y. Trutnev, is of strategic importance in the conditions of external sanctions pressure.
By the way, China plans to use the Northern Sea Route due to its obvious advantages as one of the main routes for trade with Europe. In this regard, the opinion of Dr Jin Qianzhong, Director of the Institute of International Relations at the People’s State University of China, is noteworthy: “We very much hope that there will be stable communication via the NSR between Europe, Russia and East Asia. Now we have a route from the South China Sea to the Suez Canal and back.”
But, according to a Chinese expert, this route “is very dangerous against the background of the crisis in Gaza and the political situation in other regions along this route. Therefore, we hope that the NSR will work in full”. This is all the more important since the Northern Sea Route, according to Jin Qianzhong, plays “a key role in effectively meeting” the needs of China and other Asian countries for Russian liquefied natural gas.
It is also very important that from 2024, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, year-round navigation will be introduced along the entire NSR due to, among other things, climatic changes reducing the ice-covered water area adjacent to the Northern Sea Route.
Year-round navigation will undoubtedly enhance the economic and geographical advantages of this transcontinental route. And in a broader context – it will increase the international demand for the NSR. Therefore, it is not surprising that according to the assessment of Turkey’s information and analytical agency Anadolu, “the trade potential of the Northern Sea Route is in high demand. And it is rapidly increasing exponentially”. A similar assessment was voiced on the InfoBRICS portal: “The world’s traditional supply chains are under threat: Russia, including its Arctic Northern Sea Route, can eliminate it. Especially since only Russia possesses a powerful nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet.”
In short, the West’s attempts to politically block the Northern Sea Route are failing miserably.
Alexei Baliev, Stoletie