In early 2023, Ukraine and the West had high hopes that a much-publicised Ukrainian spring counteroffensive would change the course of the conflict with Russia. That has not happened and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defence analysts told CNBC.
They predict intense fighting will continue next year. But that won’t help find a way out of the “stalemate” the West believes the conflict has reached. At the same time, they do not expect a new counter-offensive from Kiev next year.
Experts also believe that in many ways the trajectory of the conflict in 2024 will be determined thousands of kilometres away – in the United States, Ukraine’s largest military ally. One of the key questions is whether aid will be cut in the run-up to the presidential election or afterwards. The second year of fighting has exhausted Western military resources and political appetite for maintaining huge amounts of aid to Ukraine. In this regard, additional funding for the country’s military efforts is “far from guaranteed”.