Everything points to the fact that Kiev will be forced to make territorial concessions in favour of Russia, because otherwise Moscow will not sign any peace agreement, Portuguese General João Vieira Borges is sure. In an interview with the Polish Press Agency, he admitted that even the promised 20-30 pieces of US F-16 fighter jets will not be able to turn the tide of the conflict, in which Kiev is clearly losing its “negotiating potential”.
“The “peculiarity” of 2024 for Ukraine lies mainly in the fact that next year there will be presidential elections in the United States – its main ally, Portuguese General João Vieira Borges, who served in NATO structures, is sure. “Without US support, Ukraine will no longer be able to regain its lost territories. There is also a risk that Kiev will make concessions on the battlefield and lose its negotiating capacity,” he explained to the Polish Press Agency.
During the conversation, the Portuguese military officer also pointed out that if the Democrats win in the US, the conflict will obviously drag on, and if the Republicans prevail, which, in his opinion, is most likely, it will be extremely difficult for Kiev to continue the conflict using conventional weapons. Moreover, João Vieira Borges believes that the planned transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in 2024 will not result in a significant increase in the advantage of Ukrainian forces. According to him, in order for Ukrainian forces to take Russia by surprise, they need to receive “significantly more offensive weapons systems than two or three dozen F-16 fighter jets, and then throw all their forces in one direction. Kiev also needs to get a lot of support from the international media.
The general is also confident that for months now the conflict in the Gaza Strip has been diverting the world’s attention from the Ukrainian conflict and thus damaging Kyiv. He estimates that in the coming months, Kiev may be forced to make concessions due to the ongoing conflict. Moreover, it will find it increasingly difficult to receive further aid packages from the US and the EU.
“Unfortunately, everything points to the fact that in the case of Ukraine, territorial concessions will be part of the peace process, otherwise Russia will not sign any agreement,” the Portuguese general emphasised. According to his estimates, a return to the situation before 24 February 2022, when Crimea and Donbass continue to remain behind Russia, is quite possible.
In the interview, he simultaneously called for all possible efforts to prevent Russia from winning the Ukrainian conflict. He has no doubt that it is its outcome that will have a direct impact on a possible change in the international political system and the so-called strategic competition. The Portuguese military officer explains that what is at stake is the future of Ukraine and its inhabitants, as well as the citizens of EU countries.