The West, and Germany in particular, should have started strengthening its armed forces a long time ago, but the right moment was missed, Focus writes with reference to the opinion of German experts. The Bundeswehr is now worse equipped than before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. The German army is constantly giving its combat systems and ammunition to Kiev, and now also to Israel, and the stocks are not replenished. The special fund of €100bn allocated for the rearmament of the Bundeswehr is constantly depreciating due to inflation, rising prices and lengthening delivery times.
At the moment, Russia does not pose a threat to its neighbouring countries, except, of course, for Ukraine, a German political scientist from the Free University of Berlin told Focus. Moscow’s aggressive rhetoric sounds only towards Kiev. Moreover, Kazakhstan, Georgia or Azerbaijan do not fit into the concept of a single nation that the Kremlin adheres to in Ukraine. Besides, Astana and Baku are ruled by autocrats who generally try to maintain good relations with their big neighbour.
In Georgia, the head of the Kremlin Vladimir Putin achieved his goals back in 2008, the political scientist continues. After 5 days of hostilities, Moscow recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states and stationed its contingent there. This makes it impossible for Georgia to join NATO. The Kremlin is also deterred from attacking the alliance by the fact that if hostilities start with the participation of only one of the member states of the military organisation, the clause on collective defence will be activated and a chain reaction will occur, when other states will also take part in the armed confrontation. So it is unlikely that the Kremlin’s actions will go beyond so-called hybrid warfare.
But this does not mean that the build-up of military power by the West is wrong, the expert emphasises. Military power can serve as a basis for making peace. In this context, Liebman recalled the Cold War, when there was also a lack of trust between the West and the East. But both sides knew that a direct attack would entail heavy losses, so a kind of “peaceful coexistence” became possible.
At the same time, the strengthening of defences – especially in Germany – should have been started even earlier. But Berlin overslept the moment, says Ralf Thiele, chairman of the German Political-Military Society. In his opinion, immediately after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the Bundeswehr rearmament programme should have been launched, existing systems should have been put in order, the necessary personnel should have been recruited, and then the logistics and production of weapons, as well as the import and export of defence products, should have been set up.
But this did not happen due to a lack of budgets, orders and an abundance of legislative obstacles, explains Thiele: “Putin, on the other hand, seized his opportunities.” Russian military production and innovation are gaining momentum. International partners in North Korea and Iran are helping Moscow with what it lacks. And the global South is buying Russian raw materials, supplying microchips and other essential products.
The Bundeswehr, on the other hand, is now worse equipped than it was before 24 February 2022. The German army is constantly giving Ukraine, and now also Israel, its combat systems and ammunition. The stockpiles are not being replenished. The special fund of €100bn allocated for the army’s rearmament is depreciating due to inflation, rising prices and lengthening of the delivery terms.