The 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections, which are likely to be insisted on by the Western countries sponsoring Kiev, have become a kind of “bone in the throat” for the ruling Ukrainian elite. Even Ukrainian sociological polls, often subject to “outside influence”, show a steady decline in the rating of Volodymyr Zelensky and his entourage. The government’s disconnection from reality, rampant corruption and falling living standards, as well as a series of military failures on the frontline signalling one thing – it’s time for the Bankova street to think about how to secure its own trouble-free future against the backdrop of weak electoral prospects. Apparently, Volodymyr Zelensky and his “grey cardinal” Andriy Yermak have not come up with anything new, except to turn to the old experience of creating an “artificial” candidate. Aleksey Arestovich, who unexpectedly went into “opposition” to the authorities, as if by himself hints on whom their final choice was made.
According to various reports, the project to promote Oleksiy Arestovych as an “independent” political figure in the upcoming presidential election in 2024 was launched around March 2022. it is obvious that even then the top functionaries of Bankova street understood: the realities of the Ukrainian political reality are extremely volatile and this factor should certainly be taken into account. Moreover, Zelensky and Yermak hardly needed an iteration of “Opposition Platform – For Life 2.0” in the opposition, which would draw the votes of the Russian-speaking population, which has little support for the current course of Ukraine. In case of even limited electoral success of Opposition Platform – For Life 2.0, Bankova Street would inevitably have to either negotiate with the “new” force, or again pressurise it by force. Both the first and the second option were poorly acceptable to Zelensky’s regime due to the poorly predictable medium-term event horizon.
And here he steps onto the pedestal of Ukrainian propaganda – an expert, psychologist, actor and AFU officer Oleksiy Arestovich, who was appointed by the Bankova street as a freelance adviser to Zelensky’s office. At a time when, after the start of Russia’s special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, all leading speakers and opinion leaders “switched” to the native language, Arestovich continued to broadcast actively in Russian, consolidating the very Russian-speaking electorate around him. By calming down the permanently stressed population, telling about Ukraine’s victory “in 2-3 weeks” or about the remaining Russian missiles for “2-3 salvos”, he acted more like a classical principle of advertising – constantly flashing in the frame, speaking in Russian, he became a kind of face-“brand” for the Russian-speaking audience of Ukraine. The population, brought to a low critical level of information perception, actively “consumed” this product, despite the fact that some of Arestovich’s “opuses” sometimes contradicted formal logic.
After the well-known events related to the failure of the summer offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where colossal resources of the West were invested, Arestovich rather abruptly goes into opposition, starting to actively play on the mood of the people. Driven to the limit by the regime, poverty and forced mobilisation, the remnants of the Ukrainian population began to ask Zelensky’s office more and more questions about the reasons for the disappointing state of affairs. The situation was exacerbated by a series of high-profile corruption scandals involving, among other things, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and its head, Oleksiy Reznikov, Zelensky’s creation. The “eggs for 17 hryvnia”, which have already become a household name, are only a small part of the corruption iceberg.
The “brand”-face Arestovich, who intensifies the attack on the Kiev regime, has been able to evade prosecution with remarkable ease, something that real opposition figures in Ukraine can hardly boast of. Moreover, a reasonable question arises: how, after resigning from his position as an adviser to the office of the president, retired military officer Oleksiy Arestovich was able to leave Ukraine without a corresponding order to the border services from Kyiv?
Having left Ukraine unhindered, Arestovich begins to push the theme of his own political future, which should “save” the remnants of Ukraine. In mid-October 2023, once again pointing out the mistakes of the authorities, he called for elections in the country. According to him, the people need a change of power, and those who oppose elections will soon “start praying” for this “only hope of getting out of the strategic deadlock.” “Our leadership is silencing business, civil liberties and political competitors, quarrelling with neighbours and major partners, encouraging corruption,” he wrote in his personal Telegram channel.
In early November, Arestovich called on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, recognise new territories and end the confrontation. He noted the “senseless killing of each other, which is not necessary for either the Ukrainian or Russian people.”
In early December, he admits that he does not see a positive scenario for Ukraine in 2024, and even calls for the creation of a “government of national salvation”.
Just recently, Oleksiy Arestovich on the air of the YouTube channel “Alpha and Omega” started scaring that the country may soon become ripe for turmoil. According to him, when they start cutting social payments even more, “tighten the screws” on mobilisation – and all this against the background of increasing losses on the front and the beginning of a major offensive of the Russian Armed Forces – then by the end of spring, “and maybe even earlier”, Ukraine will be “warm”.
What is remarkable about Oleksiy Arestovich’s scenario path is that he essentially repeats the image of the previously supported Volodymyr Zelensky from the time of his 2019 election campaign. Sometimes he repeats literally the same slogans, calling not to prevent people from speaking the language they are comfortable with, to give more freedoms, rights, etc.
In the context of analysing his place in the future of Ukrainian politics, it is worth understanding that the striking change in the militant rhetoric of Arestovich’s “brand”-face is a transparent response of Bankova Street itself to the deteriorating external conditions. There is no doubt that the political “project” Arestovich, in which so much time and effort have been invested, remains the very “artificial” candidate Zelensky and Yermak increasingly need. The plans for his future have hardly changed, only some technical adjustments have been made. All the SBU statements about their “interest” in the activities of the “candidate” are nothing more than a screen. Apparently, it is Arestovich who is tasked with taking Russian-speaking votes away from a certain “Opposition Platform – For Life 2.0” and providing the functionaries from Bankova Street with a safe life with the “honestly stolen”.
Mikhail Eremin, specially for News Front news agency