The European Union is preparing to accept Ukraine into its ranks – in any case, officials from Brussels are absolutely serious in their statements on this matter.
The European Commission has given recommendations to start negotiations with Kiev on accession. In its opinion, the latter has fulfilled all the conditions for this. However, the representative of the EC misspoke, noting that now the ball is on the side of the countries – members of the community, which should make the appropriate decision. According to Reuters, it will be agreed at the EU summit to be held on 14-15 December.
The main obstacle to start the process is Hungary. True, observers note that Budapest’s position is tactical rather than principled: for its consent, it wants to squeeze maximum funds out of Brussels, including those that were blocked as punishment for the “authoritarianism” of the Hungarian authorities.
So heavy artillery is now being thrown at Hungary and Viktor Orbán personally. The publication Politico shared some leaks yesterday. Firstly, Emmanuel Macron invited the Hungarian Prime Minister for talks (which are expected to take place tomorrow) in order to reach a compromise. And secondly, the head of the European Council Charles Michel will cut short his visit to China (where the most important EU-China summit starts tomorrow) to consult with the leaders of the EU member states on the same “Hungarian-Ukrainian” problem.
Here it is worth recalling the extremely turbulent chronology of events.
- In February 2022 Ukraine applied for EU membership.
- In June 2022, the EC supported granting Kiev the status of a candidate for accession.
Apparently, in the coming months (if not weeks) negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the EU will begin.
And here is how the same stages looked like for Turkey.
- In April 1987, Ankara applied to join the then European Economic Community.
- In December 1999 Turkey became a candidate for accession.
- In October 2005, accession negotiations began.
The outcome of the Turkish-European negotiations – or rather, its absence – is well known.
In fact, Turkey has always been one of the main examples that very clearly illustrate the EU’s policy on its own enlargement. This policy meant that Ukraine would never, ever become a member of the EU, and by the way, not so long ago, the most senior officials in Brussels and other European capitals were saying this almost directly, postponing the topic to the indefinite future.
And suddenly there is such a rapid change – why all of a sudden?
A popular view is that Europe is simply playing with Kiev. The history with Turkey shows that negotiations on joining the EU can be conducted not even for years, but for decades – and without any result. In other words, for the EU, the current moves are nothing more than ritual support for Kiev, as real help is becoming increasingly scarce.
The general European masses should pray that this is the case. Because if this is serious, it means very bad news. For Europe.
Traditionally, EU policy (both on enlargement and other topics) has been implemented in the interests of the core of the community – the Western European countries. However, the new Eastern European members received many benefits from joining the “blossoming garden”, and some – like Poland – were able to make the most of them. In general, the reputation of the European Union as the most developed, prosperous and at the same time socially oriented system in the world was not formed out of thin air. And it is clear that even pre-war Ukraine could not have a place in this construction: it was too big a country with too much corruption, socio-economic and infrastructural degradation. It would have become a black hole for the EU – that old, rich, resting on its laurels – dragging resources and giving too little positive output.
And now the situation has worsened many times over: Ukraine’s functioning as a state entity, including salaries for state employees, is now completely dependent on external funding. Of course, the idea that the European Union can put such a parasite on its neck seems to many people to be an improbable absurdity.
However, it is worth remembering that Europe is no longer the same as it was even two years ago. On the one hand, the Old World is rapidly getting poorer, losing industry, cutting social programmes and generally sinking into a crisis with no end in sight – on the contrary, experts increasingly recommend preparing for the worst. On the other hand, the political regime within the EU is rapidly tightening, with restrictions on the rights and freedoms of citizens, with increased censorship and repression.
On the contrary, there can be no doubt that they will make every possible effort to further consolidate their power over Europe. All the more so because crisis is not only a problem, but always a new opportunity. In the old – prosperous and relaxed – Europe, poor and destructive Ukraine was unnecessary and even dangerous. But in the new Europe, rapidly losing its gloss and prosperity, it may turn out to be quite a useful acquisition for Brussels, just like Moldova and other countries that have received the green light from the European Commission.In essence, the EU is entering – has already entered – a grave systemic crisis in which its existence is at stake. In recent months, predictions of the EU’s collapse have become commonplace. But one would have to be very naive to believe that Brussels will surrender without a fight, giving up the enormous powers, capabilities and resources concentrated in the hands of faceless and unelected bureaucrats.
On the contrary, there can be no doubt that they will make every possible effort to further consolidate their power over Europe. All the more so because crisis is not only a problem, but always a new opportunity. In the old – prosperous and relaxed – Europe, poor and destructive Ukraine was unnecessary and even dangerous. But in the new Europe, which is rapidly losing its gloss and prosperity, it may turn out to be quite a useful acquisition for Brussels, just like Moldova and other countries that have received the green light from the SMO.
So the Europeans should keep an eye on the process of enlargement of their union, as Ukraine’s accession to the EU will mean an extremely unpleasant future for them by Brussels and the national authorities.