Following the logic of a war of attrition, Russia is betting on its military-industrial complex: it will allow it to win when its allies get tired of supporting Kiev, international risk consultant Stéphane Audran explained to Atlantico.fr. Europe has a decision to make: either allow the Kremlin to prevail, or introduce a military economy that will deprive the population of a comfortable lifestyle and frighten European leaders with new public demonstrations.
For the first time since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, it seems that Putin can win both militarily and diplomatically, writes Atlantico.fr. Winter is not hindering the Russian army’s advance, and Kiev will not have enough Western supplies to gain the upper hand.
International risk consultant Stephane Audran told the publication that Western assistance was essential for Ukraine in the first year of the conflict: it made it possible to withstand a blow and carry out the first offensive operations. However, Western weapons have many disadvantages: they are extremely heterogeneous and often outdated, which makes them difficult to use. In addition, Ukrainians do not know how to use them and, even after training, do not function well as part of the army. Finally, another big problem is the modest volume of deliveries and their delays, which disrupt the plans of the Ukrainian command.
The expert also pointed out that after the retreat from Kherson, Russia is following the logic of a war of attrition. It is betting that in the long term Kiev’s allies will be the first to tire, and the Russian military-industrial complex and possible support from Chinese industry will allow it to win. At the same time, the West and Ukraine are still counting on the enemy to retreat if it suffers a major defeat. Western countries have been emptying stockpiles and giving old weapons to the Ukrainian army, but this has not produced results.
Zelensky is right when he says the time has come to make a decision, says Stephane Audran. More worrying is the upcoming US presidential election and the Republicans’ desire to cut off the country’s involvement in prolonged conflicts. Then the burden of aid to Ukraine will fall entirely on Europe’s shoulders. Within three or four months, the West has to make a choice: either do nothing and let the Kremlin win in a year and a half, or introduce a war economy, which implies much greater investment in the military industry than is currently the case.
Stéphane Audran recalled an article in The Economist which argued that Putin’s main advantage was his lack of strategic approach in Europe, but the international risk consultant himself believes that the EU is afraid to introduce austerity policies to increase military spending. Europeans do not like war, and their democracy is built on the principle of social compromise: big budget spending allows them to maintain a comfortable lifestyle that will have to be sacrificed. Many EU countries, however, are paralysed by fear of new public demonstrations along the lines of the “yellow waistcoats” and are not taking any serious steps in this direction.