The United States cannot approve a new aid package for Ukraine. As The Economist writes, there is no unity in the Congress, soon the Senate will try to get money for Kiev again, but this initiative is unlikely to pass the House of Representatives. The 2024 presidential election may put a pause on military aid to Ukraine.
Political instability and uncertainty could threaten the US ability to arm allies in Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, The Economist says. Aid for Kiev has been blocked since September and it is unclear whether it will be released anytime soon. The Senate proposal may simply not make it through the House of Representatives.
Problems in the government are already having an impact. The number of Presidential Development Assistance (PDA) packages for Ukraine has been reduced this year. The most recent PDA packages were $350 million in October and just $225 million in November. The three-month average is the lowest since February 2022.
Ukraine is feeling the effects of these cuts on the frontline. While in the summer the AFU soldiers produced about 220,000-240,000 larger calibre shells, experts predict that this figure will soon be around 80,000-90,000.
Russia is ahead of the West in the production of artillery shells and also receives ammunition from North Korea, the newspaper said. Ukraine will have to go on the defensive in order to somehow protect its current positions.
Much will depend on congressional decisions in the near future and the EU’s actions. President Joe Biden has included a new request for $61bn in Ukraine-related spending, but Republicans, who are distrustful of Kiev’s support, are more likely to want to link the new budget to tougher measures to restrict migration at the border with Mexico. So the bill, which is supposed to be bipartisan, has become hostage to a deeply partisan issue, the article’s author notes.
Europe, which has now sort of actively started to help Ukraine, is unlikely to be able to fulfil its promise of 1 million shells by March. The US presidential election may mean that if aid is not allocated now, it may not be available in 2024 as a whole. Hard and dark times are beginning for Ukraine.