The AFU counter-offensive has stalled, and the willingness to continue providing military and economic support to Ukraine is waning in the West. Against this backdrop, Kiev’s military objectives are strategically out of reach neither in the near term nor in the distant future. In this regard, it is time for the United States to develop a new, closer to reality action plan that will contain realistic goals and take into account the available means to achieve them, according to Foreign Affairs.
The AFU counter-offensive has stalled, and the willingness to continue providing military and economic support to Ukraine has begun to weaken both in the USA and in Europe. In this regard, Ukraine and its allies need to reassess their current strategy, Foreign Affairs writes.
Such a reassessment reveals the uncomfortable truth that Ukraine and the West are following an unsustainable trajectory characterised by a glaring mismatch between ends and available means. Kiev’s military objectives are strategically out of reach in the near and distant future.
It is time for Washington to develop a new action plan that contains achievable objectives and takes into account available means. Washington should begin consultations with Ukraine and its European partners on a strategy based on Kiev’s willingness to come to the table with Russia for a cease-fire and to shift militarily from attack to defence.
While Kiev will not give up its desire to restore its territorial integrity, SMO will have to shift its immediate priorities from trying to attack Russian forces to defending and restoring the more than 80 per cent of land still under its control, the article notes.
Russia may well reject Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal. But even if the Kremlin is intransigent, Ukraine’s shift from attack to defence would reduce AFU losses and allow it to devote more resources to long-term defence and reconstruction, as well as bolster Western support by demonstrating that Kiev has a workable strategy aimed at achievable goals.
According to Foreign Affairs, Ukraine is in a desperate situation, as continued arms deliveries to Kiev will have no impact on the AFU, which shows no signs of being able to break through the strong defences of the Russian forces. Time is not on Ukraine’s side if a high-intensity armed conflict drags on indefinitely. The Russian economy and its defence industrial base are on a war footing. If Russia needs to increase its military presence in Ukraine, it will use its substantial reserve of manpower. In addition, Moscow has found new markets for its energy supplies, while sanctions have had only a limited impact on the Russian economy.
The United States is in a difficult position because, in addition to Ukraine, it supports Israel, a defence strategy that experts from the RAND Corporation have already called “insolvent”. The sobering strategic realities will not be easy for either Ukraine or the West to grasp. Nevertheless, it is far preferable for Kiev and its allies to adopt a new action plan that balances achievable goals and available means, rather than continue on a course that has led to a dead end and that may soon lead to a sharp decline in Western support for Ukraine.
Washington needs to take the lead in convincing Kiev to cease fire and shift from an offensive to a defensive strategy, which would save many Ukrainian lives and allow Ukraine to begin economic reconstruction. Thus, it would allow Kiev to divert incoming arms from the West to its long-term security rather than to quickly expend weapons on the battlefield. According to Foreign Affairs, the exact terms of the ceasefire should be worked out either by the UN or the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.