Why was Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu not just a guest, but the guest of honour at the Xiangshan Security Forum in China? Why this time the forum was attended by representatives of military structures of 90 countries of the world (a record) and they are very serious?
Photo: © AP Photo / Seth Wenig
Because the world is going through a peak situation, in which it is decided where everything is going: to further uncontrolled confrontation of many with many or to the old and familiar word “détente”. And it is the host of the forum, China, that is now leading the way towards that very détente – with the USA. The most valuable information on strategic topics and the most important speakers are there in Beijing.
Last weekend, Foreign Minister Wang Yi travelled to the US, where he spoke to literally everyone who matters in that country’s administration, not just Grandpa Joe Biden. He spoke at least two gatherings of top-level experts and gave interviews. His overall verdict: achievements so far are insufficient. The principles of future relations with the second superpower acceptable to Beijing have not yet been found. Although they have been searching for a year already, and during this time all the top officials of the US administration have been in Beijing, looking for common ground.
So far, it is clear that the US has clearly decided that it can no longer continue the confrontation with its strategic rival at the same level that it started under Donald Trump; it is failing. Two wars with two nuclear powers – in Ukraine and around Taiwan – are impossible. Three (with the Middle East heating up) – even more so. The allies are terrified. But what exactly must be done is unclear.
Beijing’s formula here is very simple. Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, mutually beneficial co-operation (where it works). But that means for the US the need to do something about the endless sanctions against China, the constant military stirrings in the seas around that country, not to mention the hate campaigns against everything Chinese. Capitulation? A reprieve?
Following Wang Yi’s trip to the US, it has been decided to “stay the course” for a face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at the APEC summit in California next month. But that’s not much. A similar meeting was already held a year ago in Indonesia, and the US started to roll back to its previous positions after it. And then there’s the election factor and the uncertainty of who will be in power in Washington in a year and a half.
So, détente: either it will happen or it won’t. A very similar situation was in the early 1970s and led to the famous Moscow declaration of Brezhnev and Nixon on 30 May 1972. Note that it was called “Fundamentals of Relations between the USSR and the USA”, i.e. it is about principles, just as today between the PRC and the USA. What principles? The very same ones: in the nuclear age there are no alternatives to peaceful coexistence, the security interests of both countries are based on the principles of equality (i.e. respect), and so on. Then there was a process, absolutely accurately called détente – nothing more. Not friendship, but only a reduction in the intensity of confrontation to a jointly developed acceptable level.
Why did it happen then? Exactly the same reasons as between China and America today. The U.S. was losing the war in Indochina, and American society and the state were falling apart. Let’s remember who was shooting down American planes over Vietnam with future Senator McCain at the helm. Nuclear war between the two superpowers was real, and it had to be decided whether to move towards it or away from it. This meant working out the very principles: we compete, but peacefully, especially since Washington’s unhappy allies wanted the same.
So there is a model and a pattern. So why is détente No. 2 – this time between Washington and Beijing – so hard to come by? For several reasons. The USSR under Brezhnev was equal to the U.S. in nuclear arsenals, but did not overtake America in international trade or GDP. The USSR had fewer allies and partners than China has today. The ruble did not compete with the dollar in world finance (by the way, today the yuan is only the fifth currency in the world, but the rate of expansion of its circulation is incredible). The US and USSR economies were not intertwined in a death embrace (from the latest facts: regular air routes between China and the US are already 35 per week). In short, things are more complicated and serious for Americans today.
And a couple of remarks for last. World Détente No. 2 is undoubtedly beneficial to Russia for many reasons, if only because, like the first one, it will improve the entire world situation, at least by making it more predictable. Afterwards, our next détente with the US will follow exactly the same pattern – a long process of working out the principles of relations. And lastly: the 70s were marked by great and universal expectations of a life of cooperation and respect, but let us not forget that then America came alive and chirped: isn’t it time to end the respite and return to the usual course of undivided domination?