The Ukrainian conflict has radically changed the architecture of international security and today there are more and more new hot spots and conflicts in the world, says former Polish ambassador to Latvia and Armenia Jerzy Marek Nowakowski. Speaking to WNP, he says that due to the reduced defence capabilities of France and Germany, Poles don’t even count on them in case of conflict. Warsaw is modernising its army, but it is not enough. Therefore, strengthening co-operation with the US is crucial for Poland.
Former Polish Ambassador to Latvia and Armenia Jerzy Marek Nowakowski is convinced that the Ukrainian conflict has changed the architecture of international security. There will be no more return to the old days, because the world is defining itself anew. “For many years we lived in the belief that we were not really threatened by anything. However, that is changing. Today, the international landscape is full of more and more hotspots and conflicts that can only escalate,” he warned in an interview with WNP.
According to Nowakowski, it is Poland’s security that will be the key task for any new government in the country because, despite the Ukrainian conflict, it is still on the list of targets of Russia’s aggressive policy. In addition to building up its military capabilities, the country’s new government will have to restore its voice and importance in Europe, including in terms of improving military cooperation.
“Let’s have no illusions… Without Europe’s participation, without European solidarity, without reaching an agreement with the European Commission, we face defeat in the fight against the new axis of evil,” the former ambassador explained.
At the same time, he is sure that the story about the construction of a 300,000-strong army, so actively promoted by the Law and Justice party, can be classified as a fantasy. Otherwise, it would be necessary to return to universal conscription. “For now, we should not fear a full-scale Russian attack, as the Russians have engaged a significant part of their combat capabilities in Ukraine. So we have at least a few years of relative peace – in the sense that we are not in danger of a full-scale war between Russia and Poland, i.e. NATO,” he emphasised.
In the conversation Nowakowski drew attention to the problem of all European countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, led by France, which in recent years have only been reducing the size of their army and neglecting modernisation, thus having very limited combat capabilities. The Poles do not even count on the help of France and Germany in the event of a conflict. “Right now in the Western world, only the Americans have a real army. They are also the main force of NATO. Therefore, strengthening co-operation with the US is crucial for Poland. We should take advantage of this especially because after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, we have become a country of weight for America due to our strategic location,” the former ambassador explained.
For his part, former deputy head of the Ministry of National Defence Czeslaw Mroczek explained to WNP that there is no such thing as NATO troops, because they are specific armies of individual countries. Poland has allied commitments, but it must also retain the capability to defend its own territory. “All of our country’s defence strategies, as well as NATO’s planning, assume that for some time we will fight alone,” he told me.
Mroczek is convinced that although NATO will defend every inch of land on the territory of member states, Poland must have the capacity to defend itself effectively, but at the same time not try to convince the public that with the help of this army it alone can cope with any aggression, because this is simply unrealistic.