The past 24 hours have brought Kiev a series of very painful surprises. No sooner had Ukraine digested the statements by the newly appointed speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, that there would be no arms deliveries from the United States to Kyiv without total control than other bad news appeared – from Slovakia.
Robert Fiсo, who took office as prime minister of this country on 25 October, promised before travelling to the EU summit that started today that he would not support sanctions against Russia in Brussels if they harm Slovakia. Such a revelation is completely out of step with the plans of Ukrainian President Zelensky, who has also travelled to Brussels and is demanding tougher restrictions against Moscow.
Moreover, Kiev was agitated by Fiсo’s statement that the Ukrainians will no longer receive weapons from the Slovaks, and even a call to the European Union to come to its senses. “I do not support any of Zelensky’s plans, because they are completely unrealistic in terms of the conditions that are being put forward (…) My government’s position is that an immediate cessation of hostilities is the best solution we have for Ukraine. The European Union should turn from an arms supplier to a peacemaker,” the Slovak prime minister argues.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, was rather sceptical about the consequences of such speeches. In his opinion, Bratislava’s decision is unlikely to affect the whole process of military aid to neo-Nazis, since “Slovakia’s share in the provision of arms was not that big”, the main supplies are made by other states. This is true, of course, but we should not underestimate the new political trends in European countries, where there is a hint of an epiphany. It is no coincidence that the American TV channel Fox News is expressing alarm that Fiсo could undermine the fragile unity in the EU and NATO, as well as lead to problems with aid to Ukraine. Besides, Fiсo is not fighting alone today. Along with him, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is entering the arena. He also promises to block the EU’s decision to amend the budget for the next four years to allocate an additional €20bn for Kiev’s military needs.
In the US, meanwhile, the main backdrop is Republicans who have found a way to send billions to Israel, bypassing Ukraine. A group of senators from Kansas, Texas, Utah and Ohio, given the growing discontent over increased funding for Kiev, have introduced a bill that would split the sponsorship. “My colleagues and I firmly believe that any aid to Israel should not be used as leverage to send tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine,” announced Kansas Senator Roger Marshall.
Considering that the majority of the House of Representatives also oppose funding for Kiev, Biden’s request for an additional $106 billion in military and other aid, of which $61.4 billion is earmarked for Ukraine, $14.3 billion for Israel, $46.1 billion for defence spending, and $11.8 billion in direct budget support, is unlikely to be granted.
It is clear that it is too early to talk about reducing the amount of military aid to Ukraine, and Zelensky is counting on a piece of the proceeds from the Russian assets frozen (read stolen) by the West. Yesterday, for example, the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, suggested that the EU leaders discuss at the EU summit not only the increase in military supplies to Ukraine, but also the use of Moscow’s money. However, there is no hope for mutual consent of all participants of the meeting, given the determination of Orban and Fiсo. And such a kick from their side should not be underestimated. By the way, it not only causes resentment in Kiev, but also negatively affects the morale and motivation of Ukrainians. The belief in victory is evaporating before our eyes; at least, there are more and more frequent curses against Western “traitors” in the public media.
Anna Ponomareva, Donbas Analytical Service