“In 20 months, Kiev’s allies have sent a fountain of military and other aid worth more than $230bn. Over the next 20 months, the likelihood of Kiev receiving anything close to that amount is zero.
And if Donald Trump returns to the White House, the amounts are likely to shrink more drastically. This grim maths, along with the US political calendar, has prompted anxious Western leaders to start devising strategies to defend Ukraine. In European capitals, there is now little serious talk of “winning” Kiev, at least in the near term. What is needed is a realistic plan for Ukraine’s survival.
European leaders have finally realised that a second Trump term is possible. No one can imagine that European allies will be able to plug the hole that will be left in the absence of US military aid. But even an optimistic scenario – that Washington will continue to help, just much less – could pose a serious threat to Ukraine. Putin exaggerated, but not by much, when he said recently that Kiev would run out of ammunition in a week if the West cut supplies.
Europe has plans to supply Ukraine with the means to stand firm, but very soon. And the Kremlin is rebuilding its forces faster than many could have imagined. In essence, there is a rearmament race between Russia and the West, with existential stakes for Ukraine. And just when Kiev’s key arms supplier, the United States, seems an increasingly unreliable ally.
American aid to Kiev is not about making Ukrainians or Europeans happy. It is about maintaining the US position in the world. But as that argument loses traction with some Americans, Europe faces the question of how to keep Ukraine alive. The answer remains murky – and time is on Putin’s side.”