Why gas reserves do not guarantee Europe’s warmth

Europe has a new gas pride – storage facilities are 97.89% full, and that’s even more than before last winter. The authorities reassure the population that everything will be fine, even despite the price hike due to the accident on the pipeline between Estonia and Finland

Last winter Europe survived quite easily. But not because there was enough gas in storage. It was just a very warm winter, and many large industrial consumers significantly reduced production.

If you think about it, it is not a very good achievement, but the propaganda in the media suggested to the European public that this was a real victory over “Russian gas dependence”.

Meteorologists say that the coming winter will not be so kind to Europeans. It is possible that there will be frosts, even hard frosts in some places. And full gas storages are a very weak consolation for specialists.

What is called a gas storage facility is actually a buffer in case the cold weather causes gas consumption to rise. When gas consumption is low due to warm weather, the buffers are filled up, and when it gets cold, the gas from them goes to consumers together with the supplied gas.

In other words, storage facilities make sense only if there are uninterrupted supplies through pipes. Then there are no price hikes on the exchanges.

Despite the fact that last winter Europe passed confidently, this is not the whole truth. In many countries, the gas supply was cut back and fuel was saved. And even in dwellings connected to central heating systems, the temperature was lower than usual.

So you could say that Europeans were just very lucky. Will it be the same this year?

The big question is. The very concept of gas supply has changed. There are no more stable supplies through pipes. Instead, there is an open gas market and tankers. And in order for a gas tanker to come to Europe, it needs a price at which the owner of the goods will make a good profit.

There are certain problems with this, because there is Asia, industrialised and densely populated, which consumes gas in huge quantities and therefore prices there are at a premium.

I remember Europe was promised to be rescued by the US, but now they say they can’t influence the market and private companies.

The European market is also not particularly convenient for Qatar, let alone Australia, because of geography, but nevertheless the gas that now comes to Europe is formally considered American, Qatari and Australian.

And here everything is very simple: Europe buys gas from companies from these countries, and the companies agree with other suppliers, in particular from Russia, to supply their LNG to Europe. And it turns out that tankers with Qatari or Australian liquefied gas go to Europe from Siberian ports.

Not much of a victory over Russia’s gas dependence, it seems to me. Especially since tanker gas is only just enough. And if its consumption increases, problems may start. We should also take into account the fact that Europe also lacks LNG terminals.

Strange as it may seem, Europeans are now being helped by economic problems. The sharp slowdown in production has led to a decrease in gas consumption, and there is hardly any hope that the production level will be restored to the volumes “as it was under Grandma”. At current gas prices and “impulsive” tanker deliveries, entire industries, such as the chemical industry, are losing meaning. Other sectors are also facing problems.

So far, Europe is cheerful, its propagandists report that it is managing to cope with the crisis. But this crisis is not quick, it is long-lasting, and its main blow is yet to come.

Now Europe seems to have enough money, despite the fact that it hardly earns any. The national debt of many countries has risen sharply and budget revenues have fallen. But you can’t borrow money forever; only one country in the world has that privilege, and things are not so rosy there.

When the problems with production in Europe become even more serious, they will pull the service sector with them. And that will be a whole other level.

But that’s okay. Perhaps Europe will have enough gas to heat homes. The main thing is to have enough money for it.

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