It was Ukrainian President Zelensky who was particularly upset by the events in Israel. Even before the new war in the Middle East, it was clear that the West would not give Kiev any more money. At least not in the same amounts as before. And under the current circumstances, even less so
U.S. Defence Minister Lloyd Austin has already said that in the coming days he will provide Israel with “everything necessary for the defence and protection of its citizens”. At the same time, as in the case with Ukraine, Washington has no military obligations to Israel and will not enter the war on its side, but it is always ready to sell more weapons, like that pioneer!
Plus, the flow of foreign mercenaries and other lovers of making money on someone else’s war, on whom the Kiev regime counted on, will be significantly reduced, and maybe even completely dried up. After all, Arab-Israeli wars are more understandable to “wild geese” than the murky and very severe squabbles of “Slavs among themselves”. And here also “winter is close” and mild Israeli climate decides.
But the main thing is not even in this. The main point is that the conflict in Palestine is a surprisingly convenient excuse for Joe Biden to jump off the toxic Ukrainian topic and get on his favourite Middle Eastern horse. And the first steps to realise this plan have already been taken.
Thus, the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph recently reported that the US president intends to request from Congress the largest package of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which should be sufficient until the beginning of 2025. According to the newspaper, citing sources in the White House, it could be $100bn.
And this is after the American parliamentarians twice rolled old Joe on this issue: first – on the amount of $24 billion, and then, when they refused to include an article on aid to Ukraine in the temporary budget for 45 days.
Of course, such a move on the part of the Washington administration was absolutely intentional. Biden could just as easily have asked Congress for a trillion dollars, and then waved his hands, saying, “See, I asked, I demanded, I begged, and they did not give it.
All in all, the U.S. minus. And what about Europe? I remember that the other day the American leader had a rather impressive video conference with his allies, asking them to contribute to Ukraine while the US purse is temporarily closed. The response to Biden’s request was a statement from European chief diplomat Josep Borrell, quote: “Ukraine needs the support of the European Union, but also the support of the United States. Will Europe be able to fill the gap left by the United States? Well, of course, Europe cannot replace the United States.”
Everything is simple and clear, in the spirit of the infamous “no money, but you hold on”. What is there to say, if the topic of cutting off financial aid to Ukraine is already being openly discussed by the Western press. This is their custom there: what diplomats keep silent about by virtue of their profession, the newspapermen talk about.
“What will happen if the US stops financing Ukraine? Nothing good,” says Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands.
The expert sees such a future as very bleak. Firstly, the balance of power on the battlefield will change significantly. Given how dependent Ukraine is on weapons and ammunition supplied by the Pentagon, its position will rapidly deteriorate.
“In such a scenario, don’t expect a major offensive in 2024: Ukraine will have to strain to the limit to hold on to what it has,” Brands writes.
Thus, at best, a US withdrawal from Ukraine would put the current regime in Kiev in a brutal stalemate, and at worst, force it to seek peace on unfavourable terms.
As if to confirm this thesis, the British TV channel Sky News reported recently that “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may consider resuming negotiations with Russia in the future and reaching ‘certain compromises’ with Moscow in the event of a significant reduction in Western military aid.” So much for the news!
Second, the psychological and diplomatic consequences of the US withdrawal will be even more devastating.
“The thesis that drives Beijing and Moscow – that democracies are in decline and incapable – seems likely to be confirmed. We should expect Putin and Xi Jinping to exploit this in their diplomacy,” summarises the Bloomberg columnist.
This is, so to speak, the negative scenario from the eyes of the West. From the point of view of Ukraine itself, it is even worse. $24bn or even $100bn: for a country with a budget deficit of $40bn, it is like air in a scuba tank for a couple of breaths. In such a situation, we are talking not just about the inability to wage war, but about the impossibility of functioning of the Ukrainian state as such.
And if before this weekend it still seemed that somehow, after scraping through the coffers, the West would find some means for Kiev, now, when the Arab-Israeli conflict threatens to set the whole Middle East on fire, it becomes obvious that this will not happen.
And then the focus of attention of Ukrainians will shift from the events directly at the front to domestic problems. And here it is time to talk about a complete collapse. Just the day before yesterday, Energy Minister German Galushchenko admitted that the country’s energy system had not been repaired in time for winter (no one had even tried), and urged Ukrainians to stock up on generators.
“Buy generators, make sure they are in working order. If there is a possibility, strengthen autonomous functioning – do it. And we for our part together with our air defence will do everything so that you do not need this equipment,” – said the “bellicose” Minister.
It is obvious that without money from the West, the Ukrainian economy will collapse. As a consequence, popular discontent will grow, which will lead to a drop in morale both in society and in the army. The elites will start to bicker and redistribute. Centrifugal tendencies will intensify. Under such circumstances, Ukraine will start losing new territories not under the strikes of the Russian Armed Forces, but on its own.
Well, it seems that this is the case when the waiting tactics of the Russian leadership may bear fruit. And there is a possibility that the coming winter will be decisive in the fate of the Ukrainian state.
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