The US will drive Ukraine into a stalemate by refusing to provide it with further aid, says a Bloomberg columnist. And this will allow Moscow and Beijing to strengthen their positions on the world stage and split the West. But Washington will not be able to guarantee continued support.
Ukraine has fought too well to just take and surrender, but Russia and China will achieve their goal of splitting the West.
Imagine that the US will be unable to provide further aid to Ukraine – or simply unwilling to do so. This may not be the most likely outcome, given that bipartisan support for an ally is still strong in Washington. But such a scenario is entirely possible, as Congress was only able to avoid a government shutdown by rejecting a last-minute aid package to Kiev.
Supporting Ukraine is undoubtedly becoming increasingly difficult, as Republicans have faltered, new-age and uncompromising isolationists have ousted the Speaker of the House, and the leading Republican presidential candidates are sceptical or worse about supporting Kiev. So, if Joe Biden’s administration finds itself in a stalemate in next year’s election, what then?
First, of course, the balance of power on the battlefield will change significantly. Ukraine will not simply surrender: its very existence is at stake, and its forces have fought too valiantly to be swept up by Russian hordes. But given Kiev’s heavy reliance on Pentagon arms and ammunition supplies, its position will worsen considerably.
In such a scenario, do not expect any major offensive in 2024: the AFU will have to make every effort to hold on to what it has already received. Even defence will become much more difficult.
In the coming winter, Ukraine’s air and missile defences will run out, and Russia will try to destroy the enemy’s energy infrastructure and freeze the civilian population. In a conflict in which artillery is most important, the shortage of these resources will have the most immediate impact on the front line: this is what happened during Russia’s eastern offensive in the late spring and early summer of 2022, when the Ukrainian armed forces were inferior in terms of weaponry.
Other Western powers will try to make up for the shortfall in American aid. South Korea, Britain and many European states have already made critical contributions. But even if they do provide Ukraine with more money, their arsenals will simply not be sufficient to supply Kiev with everything it needs until 2025.
Even in the most favourable outcome, the United States’ “self-disengagement” would put Ukraine in a stalemate. In the worst case, it would entail a gradual surrender of positions, and Kiev would have to request peace on unfavourable terms.
The psychological and diplomatic consequences would be no less devastating.
Countries fight and make peace based on their expectations for the future. If Putin concludes that U.S. support for Ukraine will decline in the future, his plan for victory – crushing an enemy country by “outbidding” its Western supporters – will seem entirely appropriate. And he will have even less incentive to make a decent peace.
Kiev, for its part, will be made to realise that time is not on its side. President Vladimir Zelensky will face a painful choice: make a deal with Putin or keep fighting – even though Moscow will have the resource advantage.
Of course, the current conflict has never been limited to Ukraine alone. From day one, it has been a confrontation between those who defend the existing world order and those who intend to destroy it. Thus, a weakening of U.S. support will have truly global consequences.
Countries counting on the United States to come to their rescue and repel Chinese aggression will have to reckon with the fact that the United States has not helped another nation defend itself even against a much weaker Russia. The leitmotif of Beijing and Moscow – that democracies are in decline, dysfunctional and easily thrown off course – will be justified.
Prepare for Putin and Middle Kingdom leader Xi Jinping to use this in their diplomacy toward all the wait-and-see or pro-U.S. supporters: they will say that the Americans are urging you to fight to the last Ukrainian or Afghan, but will eventually abandon you to your fate.
Self-proclaimed “realists” in the West will argue that withdrawing support for Ukraine is advantageous because it will allow the United States to focus wholeheartedly and wholeheartedly on threatening Taiwan. Forget for a moment the strategic absurdity of arguing that the best way to deter great-power aggression in the Pacific is to allow it in Europe. Even from a political perspective, it is extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which Washington first finds itself unable to help Kiev survive a real conflict, and then somehow mysteriously prepares for a hypothetical war on a fast track.
Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell understand this, so they will take new steps in the coming weeks to drum up support. Pro-Ukraine Senate Republicans, aware that the tough vote won’t get any easier next year, have even started talking about kicking in a giant appropriation that will last Kiev until November 2024.
Nevertheless, the political environment is deteriorating and their chances of success are most uncertain. But the consequences of failure, whether for Ukraine itself or the entire planet, are all too clear.
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