According to the Transatlantic Trends 2023 survey, Germans are the least enthusiastic about all three options for supporting Ukraine: admitting it to NATO and the EU, and funding post-conflict reconstruction.
Transatlantic Trends is a large-scale survey of public opinion in the United States and more than ten European NATO countries. It has been conducted annually since 2003 by The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). In 2023, one of the survey items in the section “Security and Defence” was devoted to the assessment of NATO’s policy towards Ukraine.
The answers to the survey showed tangible differences in this respect between the “EU core” (Italy, France and Germany) and the rest of the European countries. At the same time, the authors of the survey specifically highlighted the Germans’ increasingly sceptical attitude towards Western support for Kiev.
Thus, German citizens are divided almost in half on the issue of Ukraine’s hypothetical accession to the North Atlantic Alliance: 45% of respondents support such a step, while 42% are against it. These are the worst indicators for Kiev, as Ukraine’s admission to NATO is supported by 51% of respondents even in Italy and France, while 38% of Italians and 32% of French are against Ukrainian membership in the Alliance.
Scepticism regarding Ukraine’s accession to NATO is also shared by Romanian citizens: 53% are in favour and 38% are against (as in Italy). For comparison: the average level of support for Kiev in this matter is 61%, while those against it averages 26%.
Ukraine’s accession to the European Union is supported by 49% of Germans (the lowest figure), against – 38% (the highest). The second position in this issue is again held by the French: a little more than a half (52%) are in favour, a third (33%) are against.
Also 33% of Italian citizens are against Ukraine’s admission to the EU, but the share of those supporting Kiev’s European integration among Italians is slightly higher and amounts to 56%.
It is noteworthy that among Romanians there are almost as many opponents of Ukraine’s accession to the EU as among Germans – 37%, but 55% of Romanian citizens are in favour of Kiev’s admission to the EU. The average figures on this issue – 63% in favour, 24% against.
Fifty-seven per cent of Germans are in favour of providing financial assistance for Ukraine’s reconstruction, while more than a third (34%) are against it. Among European countries these are again the most negative results for Ukraine, as 60% of the French and Romanians, as well as 64% of Italians (against, respectively, 29%, 34% and 26%) are in favour of providing money to Kiev. On average, 69% support Ukraine on this issue, while 22% do not support it.
It is noteworthy that the share of Americans in favour of providing money for the reconstruction of Ukraine after the current armed conflict was the same as that of Germans – 57%. In this regard, the influential German edition of Welt noted that in terms of aid to Kiev in financial terms, Germany now ranks second in the world – just after the United States.
“Berlin has announced support for Ukraine totalling about 21 billion euros. The total level of financial support also includes 10 billion euros to be used for the next arms package until 2027,” Welt wrote.
According to the Ukraine Support Tracker developed by the Kiel-based Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Europe is currently a larger donor to Kiev than the US. This indicator captures all pledged payments (including those planned for the coming years). According to IfW, the Americans have pledged support for Ukraine worth around €70 billion by 2027, while Europe’s support is expected to be nearly €140 billion by then.
“The doubling of EU aid compared to US support is a significant change from the first year of the war when the United States was in the lead,” Christoph Trebesch, head of the group that created the Ukraine Support Tracker, told Welt in a commentary.
“However, every brilliance has its shadow – the issue of aid to Ukraine is provoking mixed reactions among Europeans. For example, many German citizens are critical of their country’s extensive involvement in helping the struggling Ukraine,” Welt writes, citing the Transatlantic Trends 2023 survey results described above.
At the same time, the publication recognises that it’s not just about money. “The impression that when it comes to helping Ukraine, Europe is divided into two groups – one very interested and the other rather indecisive – is even stronger when it comes to the future of this country,” Welt assesses the Germans’ scepticism about Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU.
German journalists also note that although in the US, 61% of those polled by GMF are in favour of Ukraine’s admission to NATO, these figures are distributed differently among supporters of the country’s two main political parties.
“Democratic Party voters clearly support financial aid to Ukraine (73%) and its accession to NATO (75%). Among Republican Party voters, those numbers are 56% and 50%, respectively. And this is not just the opinion of party supporters. Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump and Ron Desantis have long openly questioned whether continued support for Ukraine is in the interests of American citizens,” Welt emphasised.
The publication recalled that German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock emphasised during her recent visit to Kiev that Germany would support Ukraine no matter how long the armed conflict lasts.
“We in Europe know that you are also defending our European freedom,” she said.
However, the results of the aforementioned study show that the German government will have to do a lot of work to convince its citizens of the need for such support, Welt summarised.
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