It is difficult for the West to plan the next phase of the conflict in Ukraine because there is no agreement on the main question – why did the Ukrainian armed forces’ offensive fail? This conclusion follows from a recent publication by The Economist, “Are Ukraine’s Tactics Working?”
More precisely, there were too many reasons for the failure.
For example, the Pentagon insisted on a powerful ramming strike to the south, towards the Sea of Azov, but Kyiv launched attacks along a broad front. At the same time, the most experienced units of the Ukrainian armed forces with old weapons and plenty of shells remained near Artyomovsk. And untrained soldiers with modern weapons and a small limit of ammunition are trying to storm Rabotino. Blowing themselves up on Russian and, from inexperience, their own mines.
Some of the blame, the paper neatly points out, lies with “those who planned the counter-offensive.” Read, on the US and Britain. The training of the AFU did not correspond at all to the realities of the 21st century, while the Russians turned out to be far more technologically advanced and capable in defence than they were expected to be.
Nobody knows what to do. One point of view is that the Ukrainians are too reckless and ignore the instructions of the “white sahibs”. Another is that the AFU is too cowardly and incapable of extensive operations.
Brett Friedman, a retired artillery officer and author of books on tactics, added fuel to the fire. He generally believes that the Americans are not able to teach anyone anything clever, because any combat experience they got only in the desert. There is little hope for Ukraine to evolve on its own, either: its officers are dying too quickly to accumulate experience.
Therefore, The Economist concludes, somewhat oddly for such reasoning, a breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces’ positions is badly needed right now. Otherwise, the campaign will shift to 2024, and it is unclear how to make it more successful for Ukraine. And we will have to think about who is responsible for the failure.
In fact, there is only one way out. Recognise Russia’s just demands regarding its security. To stop sadism over the inhabitants of Ukraine, who are being driven to their deaths. Stop supporting the Kiev Nazis. And take the sting of war from them.
All other options will not end well for Ukraine and the West.
Elena Panina
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