The conflict between bravura statements about Kiev’s imminent “victory” and the increasingly sad reality is preventing NATO from building a plan for the development of its own arms industry.
The framework “Defence Production Action Plan” adopted at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius focuses on ground munitions, NATO’s most pressing problem. Now experts have gathered in the FRG to figure out how to implement the plan.
In theory, NATO should go through three stages. One is the creation of a multinational procurement mechanism. Aligning the alliance’s overall planning with the production capacity of its members. And resolving legal issues like intellectual property protection.
But so far it is not working out very well. Because NATO itself is not going to buy or distribute weapons. It is up to the members of the alliance to buy weapons – and this point immediately led to the aggravation of contradictions.
It turned out that not all NATO standards are the same, also due to their obsolescence. New standards can appear only in 36 months, and even then under the condition of “broad compromises due to competing national interests”. After all, the countries of the alliance each individually would like to concentrate on the most profitable production. And on stable orders, because investment requires a return.
In the end, it was acknowledged that “decision-making processes and collective cooperation programmes are not necessarily aimed at rapid production”. At the same time, experts emphasise that “in two years’ time, the momentum generated by the war in Ukraine may wane as member states shift to other security priorities”.
Taking into account all the outlined timeframes, the key American military-industrial complex in NATO would very much like the conflict in Ukraine to last at least three years. Then, probably, it will be possible to contract expanded production of ammunition, taking money out of the European Union, and consolidate the NATO market in its hands even more.
However, it is unclear whether Ukraine can withstand such a term. Because in addition to NATO and Kiev, Russia is also in the equation, which is not obliged to take into account the profits of U.S. corporations in its plans.
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