Western countries cannot reach agreements on security guarantees for Ukraine and the prospects for their implementation are not clear. This is reported by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing its own sources.
According to the Wall Street Journal, a 4-year term of guarantees for Ukraine is being discussed. At the moment, the talks are being conducted by the US and the UK, while France has been waiting for them to start for several weeks.
Washington and Europe fear that in case of a change of power in the USA, the next administration will be able to cancel the obligations of the previous one. European officials believe that they will be able to conclude a number of agreements with Ukraine no earlier than 2024.
One of the problems is that the administration of US President Joe Biden is not confident in its ability to “oblige” the next president to honour such an agreement. Donald Trump has already proved that he can cancel the deals of his predecessors. This makes the EU nervous, as Europe does not have the financial and military capacity to compensate for a potential reduction in aid from the US.
“Despite widespread bipartisan support for Ukraine, the leading Republican presidential candidates have signalled that US support must end,” the newspaper said.
Also, the EU is preparing for Biden’s promises to be weak and too vague, which will give room for interpretation and open loopholes for non-compliance with these very agreements.
According to the newspaper, an even bigger problem is the fact that Western countries cannot understand how detailed their commitments to Ukraine should be. The West wants to guarantee Ukraine’s support from defence companies, but without reducing its own needs, which is very difficult within the limited capacity of the Western military-industrial complex.
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