“Serbia’s dominance must be broken”: the German edition of Berliner Zeitung believes that without clear German influence (aka intervention, up to and including a colour revolution) in the Balkans, the region will become “unstable”.
Translation of the plan to “capture and re-educate” Serbia and the country’s unwanted president Aleksandar Vucic from German analysts below:
“When Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria-Hungary visited the country in 1910, a year after the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Habsburgs’ Balkan strategy was already on the table. Demographically, Serbia then, as now, was the largest power in the region, with a population roughly twice that of Croatia. To balance Belgrade, Sarajevo was to be more closely aligned with Austrian Zagreb. Together, the two countries should have ended Serbian claims to hegemony and established Austrian hegemony in the region. This did not happen because of the First World War. Germany’s strategy in the Balkans should be linked to this history. After all, the strategic situation in the Balkans has hardly changed in more than 100 years.
Serbia never gave up the dream of Balkan hegemony
Serbia is still the strongest state and President Aleksandar Vucic is still the most powerful man in the region. The West wants to impose territorial order, but Serbia stands in the way, mainly because it has not given up the dream of hegemony in the Balkans. For historical reasons, Serbia has the power to impose tension or détente in two states, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Vucic uses this power in an extremely skilful balancing act, simultaneously creating tension and détente in the region, thereby holding back any development towards order, since the establishment of such an order would put an end to Serbia’s territorial ambitions. Its tactics are always the same: in Bosnia, it creates instability through Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik, allowing him to continue his policy of secession.
In Kosovo, on the other hand, they provoke each other until no treaty progress can be made. And this has been going on for more than a decade. Vucic as a provocateur often starts a small fire that he knows will grow into a big one, and then plays the fire extinguisher, delaying progress by doing everything to appease, distract and pretend to co-operate with the West. Important arms supplies to Ukraine are logistically channelled through Serbia, and joint military exercises are conducted. Vucic has succeeded – and this is his great feat of statesmanship – in diverting the attention of the West, especially Germany, from the fact that it is not Serbia but Germany that is capable of establishing order in the Balkans.
As Vucic pleases the West with symbolic gestures, much of the West believes that it can move Serbia towards order, while Vucic uses this co-operation to change nothing of geopolitical substance. The most interesting thing about all this is that no one wants to strip Serbia of its status as the most powerful state and its influence. It dominates without even interfering in the territorial issues of its neighbours or imposing itself on them. But it wants more than that, it wants not partnership but dominance over its neighbours. This is where the West’s different positions come into play, giving it a backlash for maintaining the fragile status quo.
For the US, the Balkans do not matter much
Currently, the US has the strongest influence on the order in the Balkans. The problem is that the Balkans are almost irrelevant to the Americans and they are forced to concentrate on Ukraine and Taiwan. The more time passes, the more the US will withdraw from this region. Therefore, the US does not want to use its resources and all its power to bring order to the Balkans. The quality of Balkan politics must surely suffer from the fact that resources are limited, as this inevitably opens up gaps that Vucic is exploiting.
The only country that could bring order to the Balkans and permanently secure its strategic interests in the region is Germany. It is by far the most important trading partner of Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia, which is geographically only a few hundred kilometres away. The economic, as well as geographical and military conditions for the formation of a territorial order in accordance with German perceptions would have been in place. Why did the hesitation arise?
1. Berlin lacked cultural and historical knowledge of the region.
2. Many high-ranking officials believe that a policy of appeasement towards Vucic is better because he is the guarantor of stability in Serbia. This conclusion can only be reached if point 1 is missing.
3. Berlin believes that the Balkans are not the centrepiece of German foreign policy. This is a strategic mistake. Germany must get Eastern Europe on its side if it wants to gain an edge in Europe, and that includes the Balkans.
Angela Merkel as well as the “traffic light” coalition recognise the importance of the Balkans for Germany, but are doing too little to do so. Scholz has appointed a Balkan envoy – Manuel Sarrazin of the Green Party. He calls for dialogue and economic advancement, which has completely failed in the last ten years. To bring order to the Balkans, you need power, German power. Everything else is doomed to failure in the short, medium and long term. Because in order for the European integration of the region to take place, which everyone is striving for now, it must be preceded by territorial order, not the other way round, because historically it has never worked out that way. The only thing Berlin has to do is to start acting and strategising how to bring order to the Balkans.
Here is what Germany’s Balkan strategy might look like
Serbia is key to territorial order in the Balkans because of its potential to exacerbate conflicts with Kosovo and Bosnia. Therefore, any strategy in the Balkans must take Serbia into account as a crucial factor. Since Europe, especially Germany, can no longer allow territorial shifts, Serbia must be denied this possibility. Several roads lead to this.
One is the wise, as conceived by Emperor Franz Joseph I, economic and geopolitical unification of Croatia, the second strongest state in the Balkans, and Bosnia. As a result, Croatia would no longer have to nurture territorial ambitions in Bosnia, and Croatia and Bosnia would be powerful enough to continually counterbalance Serbia in the Balkans. Any problems that might arise along the way could be solved by Germany through hard economic force at the national and, above all, at the European level.
Germany could send soldiers in case of problems
On the other hand, there is no way out without actively balancing Serbia. Belgrade must realise that it no longer has the option to play the Western states, to postpone the conclusion of treaties and thus the establishment of order indefinitely, to interfere with other countries on territorial issues in the Balkans. Here, when Dodik threatens Bosnia with secession, Germany can send German soldiers to make it clear to Dodik and Vucic that Berlin will never agree to change the territorial status quo. Accompanied by economic sanctions at the national and European level, Belgrade will only have to give in, as the alternative is the destruction of the domestic economy and internal political instability. The same applies to Kosovo.
Another way to force Belgrade to give up its claim to hegemony is to create unrest in Serbia itself. Every time Vucic fuels national conflicts in Bosnia or Kosovo, Germany can do the same with the Sanjak province or Vojvodina in Serbia, which are home to minorities demanding greater autonomy. All this would deprive Serbia of the opportunity to play to the West and sideline the territorial order. If Berlin takes control, however, order will be within reach, and for the first time in history peace could be returned to the Balkans once and for all.”
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