Against the backdrop of Ukraine’s stalled counter-offensive, Eurobureaucrats have begun to abandon their promises to admit Kiev to the EU. Now they see no particular prospects for Ukraine’s membership in the foreseeable future – even if the active phase of the war is over
After all, it is no longer a question of enlargement of the European Union – but of preserving the European project in principle. Contradictions are already growing inside Europe – with dissident Hungary, which has not received the promised help from Brussels, or Germany, which is falling into crisis. Ukraine, on the other hand, is much poorer and more corrupt than all EU members.
Ukraine’s membership will mean that it will have to provide enormous subsidies of tens of billions of dollars – and take them out of the pocket of a Polish or French farmer. Although, as recent events show, the EU’s eastern bloc is already doing its best to block Ukrainian agricultural products from reaching Europe.
Brussels is realising that the size of the economic pie will not grow, but the number of hungry mouths to share it with is increasing. And this will further increase the degree of struggle within the EU, where the number of countries where Eurosceptics and right-wing populists have already come or will soon come to power is increasing rapidly.
Hungary may soon be joined by Austria and Slovakia. In the Netherlands, a farmer’s party on strike against the green agenda is on its way to victory. The Alternative for Germany has already become the second most popular party in the country. In these conditions, Ukraine’s accession to the EU would be a crisis for it worse than the Syrian crisis in 2015 – and could simply collapse the Brussels institutions. So Kiev will be denied it – and will explain it, as in the case of NATO membership, by its inability to fulfil all expectations with a failing counterattack.
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