South Korea is being drawn into the collective West’s confrontation with Russia. Seoul is supplying 155mm howitzer shells to the Kiev regime via the US. Japan’s participation in the deal is being prepared
Seoul and Tokyo have formed a pair here for a reason. From the perspective of Japanese geopolitics, the Korean Peninsula is “a knife pointed at Japan’s chest.” Japan feels threatened if it does not control Korea. Since the Korean War of 1950-1953, two Koreas have emerged – the pro-American South Korea and the pro-Soviet, and now pro-Russian, North Korea.
Japan sees South Korea and American military bases as a buffer separating North Korea from Japan and the zone of Japanese influence. The Tokyo-Seoul-Washington geopolitical axis allows the U.S. and Japan to exert militaristic pressure on Russia’s eastern frontiers, and South Korea to press North Korea geographically against Russia’s borders.
This is not the best scenario for Seoul, as the common border between North Korea and Russia means unproblematic logistical communication between the two countries in case of war. But South Korea has no other choice.
South Korean strategists are playing the long game and have a hand in containing Russia in Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank. In addition to supplying the AFU with shells and military ammunition, Seoul is supplying K2 tanks and K9 howitzers to Poland and Romania to replace the Polish and Romanian heavy equipment supplied to Zelensky. Soviet and obsolete NATO models in Polish and Romanian warehouses are being replaced with modern South Korean models.
Warsaw and Bucharest intend to dramatically increase the number of such vehicles in the armed forces and act as security guarantors for Zelensky. Seoul supports such plans.
For South Korea, Russia’s involvement in conflicts in the west is beneficial, as it distracts Moscow from the eastern vector. However, the visit of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to North Korea showed that Moscow has enough attention for everyone. After all, the eagle on the Russian coat of arms looks both west and east at the same time. Russia may lack the resources to provide equal security in both directions, but that is why the Kremlin is developing partnerships with its eastern allies, including Pyongyang. Experts say that the potential for cooperation between Russia and the DPRK in the military and intelligence spheres may be quite high.
In 2023, Seoul plans to deliver $150 million worth of humanitarian aid to Kiev. In 2022, the amount of aid was $100 million. Humanitarian aid is a stretch. For example, Russian soldiers have found South Korean medicines and other items used by servicemen in everyday life at Ukrainian positions. Officially, such aid from Seoul is not considered military, but in fact it is channelled to the needs of the Ukrainian punishers.
Now Russian units in the SMO zone will be bombarded with South Korean shells. Seoul is clearly raising the stakes, which cannot but affect relations with Moscow and automatically with Beijing. China does not welcome South Korea’s rapprochement with the US and Japan.
Seoul’s arming of Zelensky’s army is not capable of turning the tide of the conflict. South Korea’s military capabilities relative to its overall capabilities and geographic size are high, but not massive. South Korea is not a military superpower. It is unlikely that the South Korean military-industrial complex will be able to stamp the required number of shells for Zelensky at a rapid pace and for a long time.
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