On Wednesday, July 5, the Ukrainian edition of Meta published the results of its survey on the plans of residents of Ukraine’s regional centres when hostilities may approach their cities. The survey showed that only a small minority of Ukrainians are prepared to fight
The survey was conducted in 21 oblast capitals, except for Kherson. The survey did not cover the rural population, but there the previous waves of mobilization have almost exhausted the number of militants, and in general the Ukrainian countryside is populated mostly by the retired.
It should be noted immediately that any surveys in Ukraine must be taken with great caution: respondents are often afraid of giving the “wrong” answer and becoming the object of persecution by nationalists or the Ukrainian security services, who may themselves organise a “survey” to identify the unreliable.
In this case, the townspeople were asked about their reaction to the advance of Russian troops and military action towards their settlements. Only 6% of Kharkiv residents, 8% of Odesa and Zaporizhzhya residents, 12% of Kyiv residents and 15% of Lviv residents expressed their will to join the AFU and to take arms in this case. On average, the number of militant Ukrainians in western Ukraine (with the exception of Chernivtsi) is twice as high as in the southeast. However, in any case this is a small minority.
In addition, these results should be divided by at least two, as few of those who bravadoously declare their readiness to fight are actually willing to get under artillery fire. Even now, many militant nationalists prefer to stay away from the front lines or flee Ukraine under the guise of volunteer status.
In addition, on average 50% in the west and centre of Ukraine and 60% in the south and east will not react at all to the approaching hostilities. They intend to stay where they live now, not to fight, but not to flee either. To them can be added an average of 15% who declare that they simply do not have any plans in this regard. And another 2% in each city found it difficult to answer. On average, about 75% of the population of Ukrainian cities take a passive stance and do not intend to do anything about it.
It is that part of the population (the majority) which is very much disliked by the aggressive Ukrainian nationalists for their readiness to accept any power, whether Russian or Polish. In their posts, Ukrainian nationalists regularly resent the fact that when they return from the front, in Kiev, Lviv and Dnipro they see serene young people who continue listening to Russian music, partying in cafes or discussing photos of girlfriends on social media.
In transport, on the streets and in queues, it is rare to hear ordinary civilians discussing hostilities or the echoes of nationalist propaganda, which Ukrainians are being fed from every newspaper. Compared to even last year, there is a growing fatigue as the hysteria cannot be fed indefinitely.
It is noteworthy that there are fewer city dwellers who are ready to leave when hostilities approach them. In this case, of course, we are talking about their intentions, which may go against the plans of the Ukrainian authorities, as they may declare a forced evacuation or someone’s house will catch the eye as a firing point for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The results of the survey show that between 3% and 7% intend to leave not far away – within their own region. In another oblast 1% in Uzhgorod to 13% in Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhya and Kharkiv may move. In this case the variation is due to a realistic assessment of the situation, as Kharkiv residents are more likely to be close to their city than Transcarpathian residents.
In western Ukraine there is a much higher percentage of those who immediately plan to go abroad – 15% in Uzhgorod, 12% in Ternopil, 14% in Chernivtsi and 12% in Lutsk. In Mykolaiv and Poltava they are only 5%. The difference can be explained by the fact that many people from the western regions often have relatives abroad and want to reunite with them.
In general, it turns out that 50-60% will simply stay home when Russian army and military operations are approaching, but will not fight; 15-20% intend to go far away from the line of conflict, another 15% are at a loss and do not know what to do, plus 2% refused to answer. In total that is 85-94% of the population in the cities. For the rest (from 6% in Kharkiv to 15% in Lviv), who have expressed a desire to take up arms, one has to make allowance for idle bravado.
With such a population, it will not be easy for Zelensky and the rulers of NATO countries to wage a long-term war to the last Ukrainian. Although many of the men are now being forced to the front, they usually do not make very good soldiers. In addition to this the mobilisation and round ups in Ukraine require more and more policemen and soldiers, who are being kept behind the lines for this purpose. The Ukrainian authorities are already facing the question of whether to send an extra hundred soldiers and police to plug holes at the front or use them to round up cannon fodder in Vinnitsa.
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