A two-day EU summit opens in Brussels today – and the focus is traditionally on Ukraine: the leaders of 28 countries will express their commitment to financial and military support for Kiev for as long as it takes. But the events of last weekend in Russia will also be given a lot of attention – although this is not on the official agenda. But more about that later.
© AP Photo / Virginia Mayo
With every summit the European Union pays increasing attention to external affairs – and to what is happening in other countries. In the case of Ukraine, this is justified by the fact that everything that is happening there directly affects the EU, because Kiev was promised membership of the European Union, and indeed – ‘those Russians started a war in Europe’! The fact that it was Ukraine’s intention to pursue European integration and Atlanticisation that triggered both the 2014 events and the start of the SMO is simply ignored in the EU, which pretends not to understand what it is all about. The EU is a peace-loving political and economic union, what have war and peace and security issues got to do with it, we simply went along with the Ukrainian European choice!
However the meeting in Brussels will start with a joint lunch of EU leaders and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who has been invited to the summit, and therefore the formal distinction between the European and Atlantic structures is becoming less noticeable. No, no one is going to admit Ukraine to NATO – or to the EU – but not because they don’t want to, but because they can’t. Feel the difference.
There are three main topics on the agenda of this summit: first Ukraine, then migration, the third issue – China. Everything is clear on the Ukrainian issue: assurances of intentions to stand together with Kiev, talks about the options for using frozen Russian assets to restore Ukraine (nothing new here – the Europeans are not yet ready to confiscate them). Migration is not expected to get much traction either – they will express concern about the recent mass deaths of illegals at sea. As for China, a heated but non-public debate can be expected because most Europeans (both elites and average citizens) are categorically unwilling to continue down the path of divorce with Beijing. But it is increasingly difficult to do so – the Atlantic part of the European elites is increasingly pushing the situation in this very direction. Using the Ukrainian issue, among others, for this purpose. This summit is likely to adopt an appeal to China to “influence Russia to end the conflict on the territory of Ukraine”. That is, Brussels is calling on Beijing to put pressure on Moscow to give Ukraine to the West. It is not hard to guess how Chinese leaders will react to this request. Especially as this is not some kind of pacifist appeal – the Europeans are explicitly linking the future of their relations with China to Beijing’s position on the conflict in Ukraine. If you do not join in our pressure on Russia (at least in words), we will be forced to reduce our dependence on you. Very much like blackmail – totally useless against China and truly suicidal for Europe. China absolutely does not want to lose ties and trade with Europe – and, knowing how painful this rupture would be for the Old World, relies on the intelligence and pragmatism of European elites. And he constantly urges them to be self-reliant, but this is exactly what is becoming increasingly scarce in Europe.
Not only independent behaviour, but also independent thinking, which is also evident in the assessments that Europeans are giving to the events of 24 June in Russia and their aftermath. In Brussels, they will be discussing them behind closed doors, exchanging, among other things, their intelligence data, but the statements that have already been made give an indication of the course of European thinking. Russia has weakened, it may become more accommodating, it needs to step up its support for Kiev.
As early as Monday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that the failed attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group shows “the cracks in Moscow’s military power caused by the war in Ukraine”. And NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that “the attempted mutiny in Russia demonstrates that Moscow made a strategic mistake in launching a war against Ukraine”.
Cracks in military power? It is exactly the opposite: just learning the lessons of both the causes and the results of the rapid resolution of the Wagner rebellion will enable our leadership to begin to immediately correct the subtle places and problems in our military organisation. These were already largely known, but are now also much better understood, and the possible huge side effects of them have been revealed. Everything that does not kill us makes us stronger – Russia has indeed experienced a severe stress, but it has managed to come out of it as carefully and competently as possible. Without endangering the situation on the front line.
Stoltenberg’s attempt to present the uprising as proof of a “strategic error” in the very fact of the SMO has nothing to do with reality. Just as it is utterly ridiculous to hope that “now Putin will be afraid for his power and will look for ways to end the war in Ukraine” – the opposite is true. Putin was not worried about power – which, remember, was not threatened in reality – but about possible bloodshed and turmoil, and how this could affect the situation on the front.
Having passed this test, both Russia and Putin will be even more determined to win, to make our army stronger. This is what everyone – including the Europeans – needs to start from.
Source: RIA Novosti
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