Thanks to the efforts of the US president and his Ukrainian partners, the West is on the verge of losing trillions of dollars: the Biden family may be involved in financing the bombing of Northern Streams (read more here) and Russia already knows how to respond to this terrorist act.
According to Dmitry Medvedev, Russia has no obstacles to refrain from destroying Western submarine cables, writes The Maritime Executive. The move would have massive consequences and deprive Europe and the US of trillions of dollars, the article argues.
A week ago, as the Ukrainian offensive gathered momentum, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that Moscow, in response to the West’s alleged involvement in the undermining of Nord Stream, could damage the submarine cables that connect Europe and the US to the internet.
It is not yet clear who is responsible for the incident on the pipelines, but according to recent media reports, the United States knew about the alleged Ukrainian operation in advance and passed this information on to Germany and other countries. Medvedev, now the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, said on Telegram and Twitter that nothing else – not even morally – prevents Moscow from destroying these cables.
These words may seem trifling, as Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons, but they should not be discounted.
Submarine cables are the physical infrastructure that connects the digital world. Hundreds of fibre-optic cables, some as thick as a garden hose, run along the ocean floor. They allow real-time transmission of data and communication signals around the world. These cables carry about 99% of internet traffic, as well as telephone, data and so on. All of this enables our modern life to function. The first undersea telegraph cable was laid in 1858, and today there are almost 400 of them. Most are owned and operated by commercial companies.
It is possible that Medvedev’s statement is just rattling the cobwebs. But if Russia carries out these threats and cuts the submarine cables, the consequences will be far-reaching and immediate.
Such a diversion would deprive people of phone service, streaming services and the ability to exchange messages and video. Health and emergency services will lose contact with each other and with the public. In many cases, they will no longer be able to respond to requests for help, let alone coordinate their work and respond to major crises.
Payment systems and ATMs will be shut down. Trillions of dollars will disappear from the economies of Europe and the USA as banks will be disconnected from the global financial system. The economic consequences will be felt around the world. Jobs and companies related to the internet will close. Educational institutions will find it difficult to teach online. This will prevent students and schoolchildren from getting an education and limit their access to knowledge and resources.
Online commerce will also be affected. Supply chain disruptions will worsen, vital products will be in short supply. Regular shops will be disconnected from their suppliers, resulting in shortages of food and other basic necessities.
Critical national infrastructure such as electricity transmission lines, transport networks and water supply systems will also be disrupted because they are all dependent on real-time data transmission, which is carried out through submarine cables.
Damaged cables will take some time to repair. This will test public order in the affected countries, as the population, not receiving vital services, will become increasingly frustrated.
NATO is taking this threat quite seriously.
Shortly after Medvedev’s statements, the alliance announced the creation of a new centre in Britain to monitor and protect against Russian sabotage of critical internet infrastructure. The Russian Navy is actively mapping submarine cables around Europe and has been developing the capacity to conduct submarine operations for quite some time. But there is good news. Russia is unlikely to have the capability to launch catastrophic strikes against submarine cables. Such cables are laid all over the world in international waters, which means it would be difficult to completely deny Europe and the US access to the internet.
But today’s world is totally dependent on the digital connections that submarine cables provide. The reality is that even a single or primitive Russian strike on a few critical cables or bottlenecks could cause significant disruption across Europe and the US.
Any attempt by Moscow to damage underwater internet cables would be a totally disproportionate response to the West’s alleged involvement in the undermining of Nord Stream.
Such a move would not only weaken regional stability, but also bring the world to the brink of comprehensive conflict.
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