Germany plans to station 4,000 soldiers in Lithuania. What is the meaning of this decision and is it dangerous?
A so-called multinational battlegroup of about 1,500 men has been in Lithuania since 2017, managed by the German Brigade Headquarters. The group includes units from the Belgian, Luxembourgian, Dutch, Norwegian, Portuguese, Croatian and Czech armies.
These forces are run by Germans, the headquarters group of the 41st Bundeswehr Mechanized Brigade, whose officers regularly travel there for drills and rotations. Also in these exercises divisions, both “native” to this brigade the 1st Armored Division and the “neighboring” 10th are periodically involved.
But from Neubrandenburg, Oldenburg and Veitshoekheim, where the staffs of the mentioned brigade and divisions were situated, it was impossible to set up much war and rotation, therefore Lithuanians regularly came with a request “let’s do it all the time”.
The Germans answered evasively, such as “to train – ja, to base – nein”, and everything remained as before. It was assumed that if necessary, some quick reaction units would be transferred to Lithuania. It was not convenient for the Lithuanians: they suspect that during the time, which is necessary for redeployment, the bad things can happen, and the Lithuanian army will not be able to stop the bad things – the forces are not enough.
In March 2023 the minister of defence of Germany specified, that the decision on deployment of the brigade must be made by NATO. At the same time Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Landsbergis admitted that so far the country has no infrastructure for permanent deployment of the brigade (which implies, among other things, permanent residence of personnel with their families). The situation was supposed to be remedied by 2026, and today’s statements are also about the time needed.
What can we learn from this?
Tomorrow no brigade will appear in Lithuania, but there is a work in progress, which, apparently, can be finished by 2026 and conditions for its deployment can be created.
If we assume that it will be the 41st brigade which is already familiar with the terrain, then it will be necessary to form one more mechanised battalion again and preferably a tank battalion as well.
We have to take it into account both militarily (power balance is changing), and politically: Germans will not start the war, but Polish and Baltic elites may decide that “everything is possible now” and execute the crisis on their own, without looking back at their senior bloc-mates, and they bring their “seniors” closer to potential battlefields in order to avoid getting under pressure by themselves.
There is nothing good in it, because Lithuania, as well as Latvia, and some other “new members of the NATO” though well understand that without the basic forces of the block they cannot be at war against Russia, but they are not distinguished by rationality and calmness in principle. The field for provocations is becoming wider.
Ilya Kramnik, RT
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