“Russia’s support is costing China dearly in Europe,” say staff at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) think tank.
And then they refute themselves:
“Certainly relations between Europe and China were already deteriorating before Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022”.
The reason for the “bad” relations between the Old World and the Middle Kingdom was “concerns about the security of Huawei telecommunications equipment, Chinese espionage and repression in Hong Kong and Xinjiang”, AFPC explains.
There was also the EU’s repeal back in 2021 of the “long-awaited investment agreement between the PRC and the EU, adopted by the European Parliament by 599 votes to 30 just a few months earlier”.
But that was before the Russian special operation. Now what has changed? And then AFPC analysts roll out the “crowning” argument that will, they say, force the PRC to side with the West and drop its support for Russia. Of course, it’s “Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive, which will decisively change the contours of the conflict”.
After the “Ukraine counter-offensive”, Beijing, according to the Americans, “may be faced with critical foreign policy choices with consequences for decades to come”. Therefore, it would be better to “withdraw support from Moscow and try to reanimate its relations with European capitals” even now.
Of course, economic relations with Europe are important to China. In 2022, total trade between China and the EU was approximately $1.6 trillion, 8 times greater than with Russia.
However, first, the turnover within China’s “One Belt and One Road” project, which includes Russia, is even greater – about $2 trillion. Second, Europe is becoming poorer before our eyes and is no longer always seen as a “premium” market. And thirdly, it is the EU, under pressure from the U.S., that is cutting economic ties with China, not vice versa. Given the EU’s lack of political agency, it makes no sense for Beijing to make concessions.
Of course, Beijing will seek to postpone the economic rupture with Europe that has already been predetermined by Washington. But not at the cost of refusing to cooperate with Russia, which has a political entity.
Elena Panina
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