The best expert minds of America quarreled over a serious and fashionable topic: maybe, well, this Europe, with its NATO, Ukraine and other things. China is a real competitor, but let these ones somehow themselves, they are no longer small
Photo: © AP Photo / Jacquelyn Martin
We are talking about a discussion on the pages of the main US foreign policy journal – Foreign Affairs. First, one side spoke, then the other, then the third… The exchange of courtesies ended with the final publication, where two key participants informed each other that they remained unconvinced. Further, while everything is quiet, but it is clear that the topic is not closed.
For Emma Ashford, the situation looks like this: yes, there has long been a debate about whether the US should draw the Europeans into the American fight against China – or simply “reduce its contribution” to the security of Europe, focusing on the same China: that is the choice. But the thing is, “reducing the contribution” will be beneficial for both parties. Before us is not a divorce, but a future stronger and more equal partnership.
Ashford believes that the Europeans will do a great job of protecting themselves – they have all the potential for this, especially since the idea that Russia will capture and subjugate them does not withstand a collision with facts: compare GDP, amount of money, human resources. But the possibilities of the United States are not unlimited – in military circles, the opinion prevails that they will not be able to fight simultaneously with China and Russia.
And if so, then everyone will be fine if the United States leaves Europe to deal with its security and figure out what to do with China. Europe will grow up, and America will show that it is no longer a weakening hegemon with legs splayed from an unbearable load.
What does her opponent, Michael Mazar, the “old school” man say, who, by the way, started the discussion with his article about why America “still” needs Europe. And he says that his opponents fail when it comes to details and other specifics. For example, what a problem – 40 billion dollars a year for the maintenance of US troops in Europe, Europeans pay ten times more for their security. And what is the exit from Europe: with the closure of NATO or what?
And this person also accuses opponents of believing in vain that the United States can no longer create the world it wants on its own. In addition, they found time to leave – Europe is experiencing the most serious crisis since the end of the Cold War (this is about the Ukrainian story and so on). The alliance not only does not fall apart, it has re-grown and acquired the meaning of existence – and suddenly, at this very moment, to turn around and evade obligations in terms of European security? Yes, this will turn out to be the most inexplicable act of a great power in modern history.
Well, Mazar does not concern threats from China at all.
What do duelists have in common? They don’t talk about the values that unite this team of countries – leave that to Biden with his regular summits of democracies and for democracy. Values are values, and here serious people speak, whose specialty is not ideology, but war.
Let’s note: only experts quarreled among themselves, the faces today are unofficial and therefore frank, but not the US administration. What they think, who fights with whom is a separate question. And what administration will be there in more than a year is also an open question. If Republican, then just on this flank there are more tired of Europe and eager to face China. But what decisions the Republicans will make is another story. Decisions are not for you to lead discussions.
But what we can say for sure today is that the unthinkable is happening before. The nature of the ties between Europe and the United States has been discussed ever since these ties became a key axis of world politics in the last century. Including there have always been those who doubt whether it is right to keep Europe weak and dependent. But in such a way that, albeit purely theoretically, albeit in the form of a provocation, to discuss the possibility of a radical break – this speaks of a change of eras. And especially for the Europeans, they follow American disputes very closely.
In general, there will be some completely different world. And yet, someone who, and we know and feel it, and actively contribute to its creation.
Dmitry Kosyrev, RIA
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