Ukraine fails to fight Russian Geraniums

In October 2022, the Russian army carried out its first attack on Ukrainian targets using “Geranium-2” unmanned aerial vehicles

Source: itcrumbs.ru
Such equipment is now used regularly and inflicts serious damage on the enemy. Ukrainian formations were quick to assess the threat from the new Russian UAVs and are trying to take various measures. Nevertheless, attempts to upgrade the air defenses to combat the Geraniums have not yet yielded the desired result.

Nature of the threat

Geran-2 is a tailless UAV with a wingspan up to 3m and a weight of around 200-250kg. The apparatus is equipped with a combustion engine with a pusher propeller. Its flight speed does not exceed 170-200km/h, but it achieves ranges of at least 1000-1500km. The flight is carried out at altitudes ranging from tens of meters to 3-4 km.

The drone is capable of engaging targets with coordinates known in advance. An autopilot with integrated satellite and inertial navigation assets is used for this purpose. According to different estimates, a UAV modification with a full-fledged homing head is possible. A 50 kg high-explosive fragmentation warhead is delivered to the target.

“Geran-2 has a simple and inexpensive design that allows mass production and use of such UAVs. Its partially plastic airframe makes detection by radars difficult, and its inertial navigation system makes it immune to countermeasures.

Detecting, suppressing or shooting down an unmanned aerial vehicle of this kind is difficult. At the same time, its low cost allows for mass raids, and the loss of even a few UAVs will have little effect on the success of the entire event. As a consequence, the Russian Gheran-2s have become a serious threat to the Ukrainian military infrastructure, and Kiev’s formations are unable to cope with them.

At the moment, “victories” over Russian UAVs only occur in statements by Kiev officials and structures. After each raid, they report the successful destruction of a large number of drones and missiles. As it has recently emerged, the reported number of downed items sometimes exceeds the number actually launched. However, the intended targets are hit.

Barrel guns

As early as mid-October, immediately after the first attacks, Ukrainian formations began looking for ways to counter the Russian Gerasim. They noticed that the UAV had low speed and approached its target at a low altitude. This gave rise to the unjustifiably bold idea that it was fundamentally possible to fight the drones with small arms.

Last autumn, videos were published en masse – and provoked a corresponding reaction – of attempts by Ukrainian fighters to fire machine guns and machine-guns at the Geran. Naturally, no tangible results were obtained. However, these ideas have been developed. Already last year mass assembly of specialised “anti-aircraft self-propelled units” in the form of a vehicle with several machine guns began. There is no confirmed information about the successful use of such equipment.

As recently as last summer, foreign countries promised Kiev full-fledged Gepard-type self-propelled air defence systems. In the autumn, German-made vehicles were considered for use against UAVs. There were known attempts to use Gepards to cover important facilities; photos and videos allegedly showing the defeat of the Gepards were published. However, on the whole, foreign SAMs, originally designed to combat low-altitude aerial targets, have performed poorly.

At the end of February it became known that German-Swiss Skyguard and Skynex artillery systems had already been sent to Ukraine. The automated turrets with 35-mm guns were positioned as a modern and effective anti-UAV capability. However, no information about their use and defeat of aerial targets has yet been made available.

The reasons for the failure of the barrel-based air defence systems are obvious. Artisanal anti-aircraft systems, for example, use visual target detection and weapon guidance, which cannot provide sufficiently accurate fire. The guidance problems are compounded by the limited capabilities of small arms, which are not designed for effective anti-aircraft fire. The full-fledged Gepard SAMs do not have these shortcomings – they have their own radars and are armed with 35mm cannons. However, they proved to be too few and there were problems with the supply of ammunition etc.

Missile systems

Until the beginning of last year, Ukraine had a fairly large and developed fleet of anti-aircraft missile systems and systems of all major classes, mostly of Soviet design. Active deliveries of foreign SAMs began in 2022, with a number of samples decided to be transferred after the first Heranei-2 attacks. It was assumed that the remaining fleet of Soviet systems and products supplied from abroad would be able to cope with such raids.

According to reports, the Ukrainian air defence system is trying to use practically all of the available air defence systems against Russian drones and cruise missiles. Man-portable systems, as well as troop- and facility-based defence systems, are being used. Accordingly, a wide range of radars and anti-aircraft missiles are used.

Despite the boastful reports, the actual effectiveness of Ukrainian SAMs remains very low. The anti-aircraft defence system which is based on the Soviet-made components such as “Os”, “Arrows”, S-300, etc. does not manage to detect and destroy the Geraniums. Apparently, when developing this UAV, Russian engineers took into account the peculiarities of the air defenses of likely adversaries and took appropriate measures. Foreign Stinger, NASAMS, Patriot, etc. systems have not improved the situation.

New imported SAMs are now awaited and being delivered, and some are positioned specifically to combat UAVs. In particular, VAMPIRE missile system equipped with APKWS guided missile (modified version of Hydra 70) with laser guidance was recently delivered. How successful such an anti-aircraft system would be is a big question.

The prerequisites for this situation should be sought in the design of the Russian UAVs and Ukrainian SAMs, as well as in the methods of application of the latter. “Geran-2 is designed with some reduction of visibility in mind, which makes detection and subsequent targeting of missiles difficult. At the same time, drones often hide from locators at low altitudes, use the terrain and fly along the least dangerous routes.

The Kiev regime is known to place SAMs and other systems among urban development and civilian infrastructure – in order to create a “human shield”. However, the urban landscape can obstruct the radar’s view of the area and also impose restrictions on missile launches. This effectively creates additional blind spots, and also creates the risk of missiles hitting houses or various buildings. As a result, the overall effectiveness of such an air defence system is reduced, contributing to a freer flow of attack weapons.

Air-to-air engagements

There have been reports of attempts to intercept the Geran by fighter aircraft. The Kiev regime reports successes of such activities, but in reality this is not the case and there is virtually no cause for boasting.

Only a few confirmed attempts to shoot down the Geran-2 UAVs with air-to-air weapons are known. At that, at least one such episode was conditionally successful and at the same time a curiosity. A Ukrainian pilot on a MiG-29 was able to detonate the drone in mid-air, but the shockwave and shrapnel damaged his aircraft. The pilot ejected and the fighter plane went down. Ukrainian propaganda tried to make a hero out of this pilot and talked about his heroic fight against the Geranium. The unequal exchange of the aircraft for a cheap drone was diligently ignored.

The Ukrainian Air Force is unable to fight the Geraniums effectively for several reasons. First and foremost, it is the obsolescence and physical obsolescence of aviation equipment and its armaments. Fighters with old radars and missiles cannot detect, escort and destroy modern UAVs. In addition, there are questions about the level of training of pilots who are still capable of participating in combat operations.

Results and prospects

The Russian army has been using Geran-2 strike UAVs for the past several months, and during that time they have hit hundreds of different enemy ground targets. Despite the best efforts of the Ukrainian air defence, the bulk of the items have successfully penetrated and destroyed their intended targets. At the same time, Geraniums are not the only means of engaging distant targets. They are usually used simultaneously with sea- and air-launched cruise missiles, which improves overall strike results.

At the moment, the enemy, despite their best efforts and assistance from third countries, cannot fight our UAVs. The available and expected anti-aircraft weapons do not show the required effectiveness. Perhaps in the future the situation will change, but such a scenario is not guaranteed. In addition, until the Kiev regime has suitable weapons, the Russian Geraniums will have time to inflict additional damage on it and the new rearmament will simply be too late.

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