In the coming months, the USA and its allies should decide on the terms of handing over F-16s to Kiev
Source: w-dog.ru
Now the parties are discussing how many machines to deliver. The US light fighter is in service with more than 20 countries, including those bordering Ukraine. In response, Russia will have to allocate more aircraft for interdiction and change its aviation and air defence tactics. But Ukraine itself, which has nowhere to deploy and maintain these fighters, will have more problems.
US presidential national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that the United States and its allies, while training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 Falcon fighters, will decide in the coming months who and how many of these planes will be delivered to Kiev. He said Western countries had already moved to discuss the topic of strengthening the Ukrainian air force under the auspices of a “long-term commitment to Ukraine’s self-defence”.
“We intend to do everything to support Ukraine as it seeks to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. In doing so, we intend to do so to avoid the outbreak of World War III,” Sullivan said.
The statement comes after President Joe Biden told G7 leaders on Friday that the US would support efforts to train Ukrainian pilots in F-16s. In February, Biden said Ukraine did not need the F-16s.
Lockheed Martin, a US manufacturer of military equipment, says more than 3,000 F-16s are in service in 25 countries. France and Poland have officially expressed readiness to provide Ukraine with modern fighters. But any transfer of US-made aircraft requires permission from the US government. A senior Pentagon official, Colin Kahl, had earlier told Congress that training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16s could take “about 18 months”. However, the programme could be shortened to six to nine months, depending on the overall level of training and knowledge of the fighters.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski has repeatedly stated Kiev’s need for F-16s. These lightweight fighters can fly at twice the speed of sound and are capable of hitting targets in the air and on the ground. According to the US press, Ukraine expects to receive 40 to 50 F-16s to form three to four squadrons. Zelenski had intended to discuss the issue on Saturday at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Hiroshima, as well as at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July.
Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko reacted immediately to Western plans to hand over fighter jets to Ukraine, saying Moscow “has all the necessary means to achieve its goals”. According to him, the West still adheres to the escalation scenario, which is risky for itself.
In her turn, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told the Zvezda channel that the United States was engaging in pseudo-humanism and misleading, saying that it would supply F-16s only on condition that Ukraine would not use them for strikes on Russian territory. She noted that Sullivan’s words about such conditions for supplying F-16s did not comply with either international law or domestic legislation. “The US is again doing its favourite thing – imitating or fudging data in order to achieve its own goals and objectives,” Zakharova said.
The expert community notes that the F-16 has long established itself as a versatile platform capable of carrying a wide variety of weapons and equipment, but in the conditions of Ukrainian realities it will be impossible to unlock the machine’s full potential.
If Kiev decides to use this fighter to strike with British-French Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which are now installed on the obsolete Su-24, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) will be up to the task. According to Sergei Denisentsev, an expert at the Centre for Analysis, Strategies and Technologies, much will depend on which particular modification of the F-16 may appear in Ukraine. “Any radar station, including the most modern one with an active phased antenna array, can be put on this aircraft,” the expert explained.
During the Cold War, the F-16 was conceived as a frontline fighter for NATO countries, but over several decades the machine has been adapted to the new conditions. The aircraft can solve tasks not only in striking but also in anti-aircraft defence, target interception, airspace control. “If Ukraine receives a modification of the F-16 with the latest generation radar, it will be possible to say that the main task for the aircraft will be airspace control, for example, over the Crimea. If there is no radar, the aircraft may be sharpened to carry Storm Shadow cruise missiles or American HARM anti-radar missiles,” Denisentsev did not rule out.
“Now there is some haggling over who should supply how many fighter jets to Ukraine. The Americans do not want the deliveries to come directly from the US and insist that it should come from other countries. Poland is already ready to supply F-16s, but demands replacement with F-35s. All these peripeteia should be solved in the nearest future,” says Sergei Khatylev, former head of the antiaircraft missile troops of the Special Purpose Air Defense Command in Moscow.
He is sure that the F-16 can act primarily in two hypostases – as an interceptor or a bomber. “But Russia will have to respond in any case, there will be overheads, including the training of pilots. It will be necessary to allocate more aviation for possible interception, to change the tactical actions of aviation and air defence means,” the expert warns.
According to him, the F-16 does not have the capabilities of the Russian Su-34, which can be a bomber, an attacker and an air defence fighter. “For example, during a combat flight, the F-16 needs to be covered, it needs to be controlled and hit. This is an impossible task for the AFU today. Yes, the planes can fly beautifully towards the Russian troops or our border, but on the turn they will be destroyed by the fire of anti-aircraft missile systems or the strike of our long-range missiles,” the expert is convinced.
Khatylev admitted that the position of Western countries on fighter jets is surprising to him. “Today it is practically impossible to land F-16s on Ukrainian airfields. To do this, the runways have to be completely re-equipped according to NATO standards. This applies to communication systems, control systems, fuel refuelling, etc. An aeroplane outside the control zone is an ordinary piece of iron, on which, at the very least, Ivan Kozhedub or Alexander Pokryshkin should be put so that it can conduct independent air combat. Even if Ukraine acquires 60 or 100 F-16s, they will not solve this problem and will not create any furor,” the expert says.
He does not rule out that the fighters transferred to Kiev will be deployed in the territory of Poland and Romania, where there is all the necessary infrastructure, but in this case the combat radius of their use, which is about one-third of the maximum range flight, will be reduced.
“The very appearance of the F-16s in Ukraine will not bring any significant shift towards any great victories. In order to use the aircraft, you need to gain air superiority,” Khatylev concluded.
Andrei Rezchikov, Vzglyad
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