Back in February, The Wall Street Journal reported on the planned increase by the United States of America in the number of its military in Taiwan within a month – from about 30 people to 100-200 people, citing sources in the American administration. Later, Taiwan’s central news agency Focus Taiwan CNA reported the deployment of about 200 US military advisers to bases around the island.
According to CNA sources, in the Taiwanese armed forces, the main task of specialists from the United States will be to help implement military reform – from 2024, compulsory military service in Taiwan will be extended from 4 months to a year. The increase in the number of American forces in Taiwan will be the largest in recent decades, and if the information is finally confirmed, China’s response will not be long in coming, despite the flexibility of China’s foreign policy. After all, the diplomacy of the Chinese side did not prevent a rehearsal of strikes on key targets in Taiwan in response to the visit of the Taiwan leader to the United States.
Such a policy is effective, and an example of this is the justification of Anthony Blinken, who followed the Chinese exercises, who called for the meeting of the leader of Taiwan and the speaker of the lower house of Congress, Kevin McCarthy, not to be considered a “special event”.
In addition, Russia could not miss all this – a sudden check of the Pacific Fleet in the Far East was announced against the backdrop of a tense situation in the Asia-Pacific region and largely in response to the largest joint exercises of the United States and the Philippines. But that’s not all. Vladimir Putin noted that the forces of the fleet can be used in conflicts in any direction. This, among other things, is a signal of Russia’s determination to act in the Asia-Pacific region and, probably, to act jointly with China in the event of a conflict with Taiwan.
In addition, it cannot be denied that the snap exercise was a great demonstration of the possibilities for the Chinese partners. Thus, not only a diplomatic rapprochement between China and Russia is looming, but also a military one, which was also facilitated by the visit of the Chinese defense minister to Moscow.
However, given the aforementioned caution of China, justified by the unwillingness to lose the markets of Europe and America, it is hardly worth waiting for a statement on the creation of a Chinese-Russian military bloc in the near future. And yet, for Russia, the current developments in the Asia-Pacific region have great geopolitical potential: both in the framework of cooperation with China and in the framework of confrontation with the United States. This potential is unfolding before our eyes — the mere possibility of a military confrontation on two fronts is unacceptable to Washington, so the United States is trying to show its firm determination by conducting exercises in the Asia-Pacific region and sending military advisers to Taiwan.
Russia’s timely inclusion in the Asia-Pacific geopolitical processes and the visit of the Chinese defense minister puts Washington in an even more uncomfortable situation in which China, without losing anything, re-sends a signal of determination to act against the United States – and not alone.
Arseny Kuznetsov, political scientist, member of the Digoria Expert Club, especially for News Front
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