Despite yesterday’s evening panic in Telegram about the start of the “counteroffensive” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nothing similar has happened yet. In reality, the Ukrainian units were able to make a shallow breakthrough only in the Artyomovsky direction, implementing the plan of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Syrsky to regain control over Bakhmut
Photo source: infopovod.ru
However, this should also be taken very seriously – if successful, it is possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to develop it by continuing the counteroffensive in this direction. And yet, with regard to the long-awaited large-scale offensive operation, for now, Zelensky is trying by hook or by crook to delay it.
The West is openly putting pressure on Kiev, through the mouths of high-ranking representatives of the political and military leadership of the United States, arguing that everything that is needed for a successful offensive has been provided to Ukraine, while Zelensky and Co. stubbornly insist that this is not enough and they must wait.
“With what we have, we can go ahead and succeed. But we would lose a lot of people. I think this is unacceptable. We still need a little more time,” said the President of Ukraine in response to remarks by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken about the full readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a counteroffensive – “as I have repeatedly said, this is not only about weapons, but also about training… according to my own estimates, they have everything in all these areas to continue to be successful” – as well as the statement of the speaker of the US command in Europe and Africa, Colonel Martin O’Donnell that “Ukraine received over 600 types of weapons for the counteroffensive and this is more than any army in the world has.”
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov echoes his patron, saying in his characteristic inimitable manner of a gopnik from the gateway that the time and direction of the counteroffensive will be chosen not by the military, but by the politicians of the President’s Office, and in general there is no need to stand over Zelensky’s soul and “wait” for something.
“When someone starts talking about something, even from respected institutions in the West, believe me: there are no people who know exactly all our plans today. Because the final plans have not been approved yet,” Danilov said.
That is, in fact, the Kiev regime behaves with the West like an unfaithful husband, explaining to an impatient mistress why he cannot leave the family now. And Zelensky has at least a few good reasons for such audacious behavior:
Firstly, these are serious doubts about the success of the “counteroffensive”. According to The Washington Post, Zelensky is scared, he finally realized that the counteroffensive will fail, and the hype arranged around him will go sideways to Kyiv.
“Zelensky is afraid of not meeting the expectations of sponsors, because now Russia has the superiority on the battlefield. The build-up ahead of the counter-offensive has forced Ukrainian leaders to ponder the difficult question: what outcome will be enough to impress the West, especially Washington?”
Perhaps the only factor that can turn an a priori failed task into success can be another “goodwill gesture” from Russia. After Kyiv, Kharkov and Kherson, fears that this is possible, unfortunately, persist, but this does not make the Ukrainian counteroffensive any less risky.
Secondly, the very fact of the counter-offensive is more important for the West than its result. According to its results, in any case, they intend to “force” Zelensky to peace, or at least a truce. Why is that? And everything is simple – the war in its current form interferes with the further political plans of the White House and has clearly tired the Europeans.
According to Ukrainian sources, rumors have spread in the corridors of Bankova that the Western lobby has set harsh conditions for Zelensky: either he goes on the offensive, or the conflict is “frozen” and peace agreements take place. Time was given until mid-autumn 2023.
“If he decides to play, then he will be cut off financial and military assistance, and the Ukrainian economy will default, then the Ze-rating will quickly collapse to the bottom. In addition to this, a couple of interesting corruption cases of Zelensky’s entourage will be merged”, the insiders emphasize.
This information is also confirmed in the WP material, where it is said that there are fears that if the Ukrainians fail, Kyiv will lose international military assistance.
“In this case, the West will certainly force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table on Russia’s terms. The Armed Forces of Ukraine need a quick breakthrough, which is almost impossible to implement in the realities of protracted artillery battles in the east and south of the country,” the author of the article concludes.
The fact that for Kyiv there is nothing worse than the end of the war is quite obvious. Even in the event of a truce, Zelensky and Co. will face a loss of interest, and with it a significant share of funding on the external circuit, and the emergence of many uncomfortable questions and frankly Maidan sentiments inside the country.
But going for broke with a counteroffensive is also a so-so option. Well, as a failure, which could lead to the loss of several more regions and the complete zeroing of the “heroic” image of President Zelensky.
In this regard, it is much more profitable for Kiev to win several local victories, for example, to recapture Bakhmut – under certain circumstances it is quite possible – or to conduct a sudden operation on the territory of Russia – with the capture of several settlements and subsequent retreat – which could have a serious negative PR effect inside Russia.
But this alignment does not suit the United States at all.
“Ukrainians need a major victory to convince their allies to continue to provide support. The clock is ticking,” writes the American edition of Newsweek.
And yet they fail to force Zelensky to take the offensive. Moreover, to some extent they succumb to his stubbornness and push back the deadlines themselves. If earlier it was about winter, then about spring and even summer, now autumn is called the deadline. And there’s a lot more to come before autumn.
Zelensky himself advises the States not to be nervous and assures that until November 2024, that is, before the US elections, it is quite possible to “have time to defeat Russia.” You can’t call such statements otherwise than as a form of mockery of the curators.
Alexey Belov, IA Antifascist
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