“Putin tried to project power, but the parade in Moscow only showed his isolation.” With this headline, CNN released an article about the Victory Day celebrations in the Russian capital. They say that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived in Kyiv that day, and only a handful of leaders of the post-Soviet countries visited Moscow
Someone, probably, will agree with this thesis. Yes, a handful of leaders gathered impressive. Presidents of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov, Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as well as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
However, for those who agree with the thesis of CNN, the main European bureaucrat (or rather, the American one who looks after order in the European prison of peoples) is much more important and more status than the leaders of the national post-Soviet states. Simply because she is from enlightened Europe, and they are not clear where. However, many people, and above all the Americans themselves, will not agree with such a prioritization. Contrary to CNN propaganda, they understand how serious a blow this collective voyage to Moscow has been for Western positions.
The fact is that the West has been trying to put together a construct of Russia’s global isolation for a year now. Not only for the sake of promoting political clichés – isolation was to become an important part of the Western sanctions policy. Deprive Moscow of the opportunity to buy equipment, machine tools, high-tech products from abroad. Weaken Russian capabilities as part of the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine.
And from this point of view, it was extremely important for the West to connect not only large states (for example, India), but also countries neighboring the Russian Federation to this isolation. Having a border with Russia, which means that they have the logistics capabilities for the supply of sanctioned goods to the Russian Federation.
It is clear that this is not about China – Beijing is vitally interested in Russia’s success in Ukraine, and is also very strong in order to withstand pressure from the West. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has already threatened to take countermeasures if the same Europe imposes sanctions against Chinese companies because of their alleged cooperation with Russian partners.
But the countries of the post-Soviet space do not have such opportunities – their political and economic resources are an order of magnitude weaker than those of China. That is why the US and Europe have made such an effort in recent months to indoctrinate Russia’s neighbors, both through group therapy (for example, during Anthony Blinken’s visit to Central Asia) and through private and two-way conversations. They were persuaded with promises of investments, threatened with the prospect of sanctions, and finally, they were banally frightened by the fact that, in case of success in Ukraine, Moscow would continue to collect Russian lands and take up limiting the sovereignties of the post-Soviet states.
And it would seem that this strategy turned out to be successful – the media were full of reports that the neighbors (everyone except Alexander Lukashenko) one by one are withdrawing some kind of support for Russia. They abstain from voting in international organizations (like the UN), publicly express their readiness to comply with US sanctions. And even, as in the case of Armenia, they are going to send troops to NATO exercises.
Why then did they all come? And not only did they come, but were present during Putin’s rather tough anti-Western speech. And thus they let the West know that they (well, or most of them) do not intend to join any isolation of Russia.
There are several versions. Some say that China insistently asked the post-Soviet leaders, thereby extending a hand of diplomatic assistance to Moscow. None of the countries in the region could refuse two great powers at once – especially neighbors, especially the largest trading partners. Others claim that Chinese help was not needed here. That the countries of the post-Soviet space have finally decided. And they took at least a non-hostile, and at most a partner line in relation to Moscow.
And what prompted them to do so? What made you abandon the multi-vector policy, which many have already considered as a cover for a turn to the West?
Perhaps the Americans passed it on? According to rumors, during his visit to Central Asia, Anthony Blinken spoke very harshly with local presidents – to the point that he threatened them with support for the local “democratic opposition.” Let us recall that Moscow, in principle, does not interfere in the internal affairs of its neighbors.
Perhaps the leaders of the countries of the post-Soviet space took a close look at what was happening and realized that the advantage in the conflict is on the side of Russia. A country that has not broken under sanctions, which is deploying military production, whose society is determined to fight to the bitter end – in contrast to the West, where anti-war protests are growing and there is a growing misunderstanding of why they support the Kyiv regim at all.
Or maybe our post-Soviet partners finally got the meaning of Alexander Lukashenko’s phrase that if Russia collapses, then the place of all the CIS countries (the Belarusian leader, of course, spoke about the CSTO – but here you can say about all the neighbors of the Russian Federation) under the Russian debris. As Vladimir Putin rightly noted, for Russia this conflict is existential in nature, which means that none of them will survive the chaos that will begin in the post-Soviet space in the event of a Russian defeat in the special operation in Ukraine.
In any case, Moscow’s neighbors’ visit is a big victory. We do not need von der Leyen – the doctrine of Russian foreign policy clearly states that we do not see any serious chances for normalizing relations with Western countries in the near future. And if it happens, it will be with the countries, and not with the European bureaucrats. The post-Soviet space, as it was, remains the area of Russia’s vital interests.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, VIEW
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