Ukrainian lobbyists are worried: in case of failure or limited success of the upcoming counterattack, Kiev may face problems with further tranches. And in the West they will start to move to negotiations with Russia and involving China – aiming to freeze the conflict
In the situation with the counter-attack Kiev’s lobbyists have managed to outplay themselves. They have formed a media picture of a complete victory for Ukraine at the expense of one shot. And now they realise that the expectations of the Western political class from the counter-offensive are too high. And any other result will cause a sharp loss of confidence in Ukraine’s ability to fight further.
Kiev now seeks in advance to shift all responsibility for the possible failure of the counterattack onto problems with Western weaponry. German artillery gets stuck in the mud and quickly fails. HIMARS began to miss their targets due to GPS signal jamming. Shells and missiles are in short supply.
Once again there are calls to urgently put F-16 fighter jets on the front – because otherwise there is no way to defend against the Russian glide bombs that hit Ukrainian military installations. They could even lead to a postponement of the counter-offensive date. But Western fighters are not being supplied for pragmatic reasons – they would be an easy target for Russian air defence.
The issue of further tranches to Ukraine remains unresolved, because so far Washington cannot even raise the debt ceiling. Therefore the Pentagon has to reduce the size of the tranches in order to stretch them out for longer. However, by the end of the summer the money will run out anyway and then Congress may raise the question of reducing spending on Ukraine – especially if the counter-offensive fails and the current crises within the US worsen.
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