Ukraine is on the verge of a total blockade. As of today, one can say that the only country which so far guarantees the free passage of trade goods from Ukrainian territory is… Russia. At least as long as the so-called grain deal, which Moscow has agreed to extend until 18 May, remains in force. After which the blockade may be complete.
Photo: © AFP 2023 / Sergei Supinsky
Events are evolving rapidly. The violent protests of Polish farmers indignant at the uncontrolled import of Ukrainian grain were followed by a total ban not only on imports, but even on transit through Poland of all Ukrainian agricultural products. And then Hungary and Slovakia made slightly more lenient, but similar decisions, and Romania stated the same intention.
The Poles eventually adjusted their tough (if not cruel) ban by planning to allow the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products as of today. True, they stipulated this permission with a host of conditions that may undermine Ukrainian exports. However, there is a question: will there be any countries in Europe where these products can be delivered? Because Bulgaria, which does not share a border with Ukraine, has already announced its intention to ban imports of Ukrainian grain. Bulgaria may be soon followed by others.
It is very interesting how the position of the European Commission on this issue has changed. At first, Brussels disfavored decisions of Poland and Hungary and stated that unilateral actions regarding a trade embargo were unacceptable. However, when European commissioners faced unity of East-European countries, they went back on their word and tried to reach an agreement to keep the ban on import of Ukrainian agricultural products, but decided to allow their transit. Brussels even declared readiness to pay 100 million euros in compensation to farmers who suffered from Ukrainian dumping. However, the disputes continued and seem to require a solution on the level of EU leaders.
In doing so, the European Commission has finally acknowledged that there is a problem for farmers. Nevertheless, it did not venture to take responsibility for its creation. Let us recall how a year ago Josep Borrell, European Commissioner for Foreign Affairs, announced the creation of “green corridors” for Ukrainian grain, which should have moved freely to the EU. That is when all the troubles of European farmers began.
All this was done under the guise of “saving starving Africa”. But impartial statistics shows that the final destination of agricultural cargo was in the EU, where Ukraine from July last year to March this year delivered more than 20 million tons of grain, and Asia (and not the poorest countries) – 11.5 million tons, while in Africa (not the neediest Egypt again) a little more than three million tons were sold. So much for “helping the hungry”.
Ukrainian grain flooded eastern European grain elevators. Farmers of these countries are simply devastated – to the point that some are threatening suicide. But the European commissioners have long pretended that this does not concern them.
And now, Polish farmers are saying that they will not accept the “compromise” proposal of the European Commission because it only partly solves the problem. Yes, Polish grain elevators are promised to be unloaded before the next harvest. But the organizers of the farmers’ strike point out that Ukrainian grain will still flood European ports, which will deprive Polish farmers of the possibility to sell their products abroad. Therefore they intend to continue the blockade of the Ukrainian border, regardless of the negotiations in Brussels.
What is left for Ukraine itself? It finds itself in a total blockade (let us remind you that Poland’s embargo concerns not only grain, but also meat, poultry, milk, eggs and so on). That, in turn, threatens the total ruin of entire sectors of the Ukrainian economy – already barely breathing. Under such conditions, the only hope of Kiev is that Russia will extend the grain deal leaving some breathing space.
Here Ukrainians should ask themselves questions: who is really at war against them and whose interests are served by the Kiev regime? But such questions have long been forbidden by law there – they could be imprisoned “for justifying Russian aggression”.
Vladimir Kornilov, RIA
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