Analysis of an article in the Chinese online edition The Paper
“On March 27, a new shipment of Western arms and equipment arrived in Ukraine, including British Challenger 2 battle tanks. On the same day, Berlin announced the delivery of 18 Leopard 2 units previously promised to Kiev. Nevertheless, Ukraine continues to urge the European Union to increase and accelerate deliveries of modern weapons. However, due to the enormous rate of arms and equipment consumption, Western aid is only a drop in the bucket, and Kiev’s “bottomless stomach” is creating difficulties for the military-industrial capabilities of various countries. The U.S. and many European countries are already questioning whether to continue stepping up aid to Ukraine,” according to the popular Chinese news website The Paper.
The website recalls that in late March, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov announced the arrival in Kiev of the first British Challenger 2 tanks. In addition to the tanks, other armoured vehicles sent by “Western partners” also arrived for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, whom the minister thanked for their support to the Ukrainian army. However, the military equipment, no matter how advanced it is, cannot meet all the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is because the bulk of the Western aid is not advanced tanks, but, for example, Soviet-made fighter jets, which remained in Poland and Slovakia, and which these countries are not sorry to give to Ukraine. However, these fighters have limited use in modern warfare, when artillery duels are predominant, The Paper notes.
Undoubtedly, the M1 Abrams tanks will strengthen the main armoured forces of the Ukrainian army, except that they will arrive in Ukraine about six months after a “possible counter-offensive” by the AFU. In addition to the fact that Western assistance is insufficient and also long overdue, the partners are still in no hurry to accept Kiev’s complete “wish list”, which includes American F-16 fighter jets, long-range missile launchers and especially the shells needed for existing Soviet-made tanks and artillery, the article says.
“At present, the AFU is using a ‘hodgepodge’ of its own equipment left over from the Soviet era and other equipment received. According to reports, a crucial test for the AFU could be the anticipated attempted spring counterattack. For example, Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s European Program, is confident that time is on Moscow’s side, which has enough soldiers and weapons to conduct military operations for a long time. Ukraine has no such advantage, so unless military aid is provided to Kiev in full and very urgently, the AFU will be defeated,” wrote authors Hu Zhenqing (胡甄卿), Chen Bunyuan (陈邦媛) and Lu Chenan (吕晨安).
They note that Ukrainian President Zelensky, during online talks with the European Council on 23 March, virtually repeated the words of Rachel Rizzo, saying that as soon as the West establishes rapid deliveries of military aid, the Ukrainian army will immediately be victorious. Otherwise Kiev will be defeated.
According to Zelenskyy, a “perfect uninterrupted supply” of arms and military equipment from the USA and the EU to Ukraine should be established. However, it is impossible to do so, the authors of the article say.
The paper refers to military columnist Bai Menchen, who stresses that the West is working hard enough to meet all Ukraine’s demands. However, the Ukrainian appetite is growing so fast that the Western industry simply does not have enough time to increase production. Furthermore, Kiev’s increased appetite is beginning to have a negative impact on the economies, industry and defence of Western countries.
For example, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg even had to remind Kiev that the current rate of consumption of artillery shells by the Ukrainian army has exceeded the rate of production in Western countries, which creates certain difficulties. Until 24 February last year, the United States was producing 14.4 thousand unguided artillery shells a month. This amount was sufficient to meet the needs of the U.S. army. However, the ever-increasing appetite of the AFU forced the Pentagon to triple the production of these shells last September, and to double it again this January. It is unlikely that the Pentagon will be able to further increase the rate of production, the online edition believes.
The Norwegian military company Nammo, one of Europe’s defence companies producing ammunition, is also unable to meet the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is because it is necessary to increase the production of ammunition 15-fold. The existing production facilities will not be able to cope with this; for this purpose several more ammunition production plants must be built. However, there is no money for construction – all finances go to aid Ukraine, the authors describe a vicious circle of military aid to Ukraine.
“The West spends money to rapidly expand production capacity, but the implementation of this ‘acceleration’ could take years. U.S. and European military-industrial complex models will be difficult to change because of the constraints imposed by economic systems. Furthermore, the US and EU have almost exhausted their ammunition stocks since the start of the Cold War and the increased cost of producing new units is also a problem. At the same time, attempts to reduce the influence of bureaucracy on military aid to Ukraine have been unsuccessful, leading to delays in arms deliveries. All this will lead to Western military aid becoming weaker every month,” The Paper states.
Ella Maistrenko, One Rodina
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