Anders Fogh Rasmussen made a simple and clear point: real democracies should create their own economic NATO, an organization that would prevent autocratic China from imposing sanctions against them
Photo: © AFP 2023 / John Thys
Rasmussen knows better how this is done because he was NATO secretary general from 2009-2014. And now, apart from being an adviser to Ukraine’s president, he is also one of the founders of the Alliance of Democracies. And as such he organised, among other characters, the second virtual “summit for democracy” taking place this week under the powerful auspices of Joe Biden himself. That’s right, no democracy without NATO and Ukraine. Among other things, he proposed his idea to Biden’s summit.
Economic NATO – here we mean the analogue of the fifth article of the statute of the North Atlantic bloc, and it is based on this article. As soon as a vicious enemy attacks any member country, all others, according to this article, are obliged to go to war against it. So it is necessary that the good people react in the same way to any economic sanctions imposed on democracies by China and other autocratic regimes.
There is, of course, a lot to talk about sadly. On the one hand, Beijing is generally and fundamentally against sanctions anywhere in the world, because they are illegal and generally interfere with the global economy. And China’s strategic goal is that there should be no sanctions anywhere. On the other hand, to live with wolves is to howl like wolves; when the Chinese are vexed by regular attacks and provocations, they impose sanctions. This was the case with Lithuania and its pro-Taiwan moves, and this was the case with Australia, and Beijing is only now negotiating with the latter to lift at least part of the sanctions.
Rasmussen, on the other hand, proposes to develop a standard response to any Chinese sanctions against any country or corporation, i.e. to be prepared for them in advance. So that all democracies would automatically provide immediate assistance in money and stuff to the victim (e.g. take over the commodity flows that have suddenly dried up in the Chinese direction).
Note the elegance of the thought: if we, the good ones, sanction someone, it’s OK. But if they sanction us, it’s not.
However, the bright side of the matter is as follows: in general, here we have a vivid recognition that the West is not alone in imposing sanctions and that someone there is already afraid of these weapons.
Besides the idea of the fifth article is doubtful. Why? Because in China, on the island of Hainan, the next annual Boao Forum is taking place this week. Not a virtual one, modest, for more than a hundred countries, but a mere 50 (including at the highest level), as it is only about the future prospects of the Asian economy. And this Chinese forum has brought to light figures that show why not everyone would want to fight with China and play the game of “whose sanctions are scarier”.
For example, Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, tells the audience that in 2023 one third of global GDP growth will come from China. And every dollar added in China will generate $0.3 of the same growth in Asia – and not just there.
The report, handed out to participants before the forum began, reminds us: the Asian economy as a whole could grow by 4.5 per cent this year. And globally, the figures vary between 1.7 per cent and 2.9 per cent. In other words, some non-Asian parts of the world could end up with zero growth at all (if we are lucky).
All together means what we already see. What Westerners like to call democracies will, at best, freeze in place – that is if the current crisis does not turn into a catastrophe. And if the world as a whole takes a leap forward and upward, it will only be thanks to China and other autocracies. And from this a simple conclusion can be drawn: with such resources the West better not start (or rather, not continue) its favourite sanctions games. The non-West is in danger of having a far greater margin of safety in these games.
Dmitry Kosyrev, RIA
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