Joe Biden’s popularity is at the bottom again – near a historic low, with the collapse occurring in just a month. One reason is the banking crisis, another is the threat to imprison Donald Trump that the Democratic Party is trying to implement. The peculiarity of the alleged plot is that it is not so much against Trump as it is against Biden and his second term.
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Polls show that Joe Biden’s approval rating has plummeted – literally collapsed, coming close to his own anti-record. The Associated Press reports that the president now has only 38% popular support. Back in February it was 45%. And the worst record is spring-summer 2022, when the head of state’s popularity dipped to 36%.
Biden’s advanced age provokes all sorts of surprises, but why the sudden “swings” of love and hate? What happened in America that affected millions of Americans at once?
It would be nice to assume that it is due to the White House’s failures in foreign policy. In the Middle East, the political architecture that the US has been building for years is crumbling. The Ukrainian authorities remain unprepared for a ‘spring counter-offensive’, even though Washington has spent a lot of money on it. The two main adversaries, Russia and China, have clearly conspired on something, which former President Donald Trump regards as possibly “the worst day in American history”.
But unfortunately, that’s not how it works in the US. Foreign policy interests the population last, one’s own pocket first.
After the start of the EWS and the economic war with Russia, Americans were hit with the first consequences – inflation and galloping increases in petrol prices. Against this background many were annoyed by the cheques written to Vladimir Zelenski, and some doubted in principle whether the venture would make any good. Hence Biden’s record low ratings.
But over time the situation stabilised, and on a macroeconomic level America began to benefit from the conflict – for example by siphoning off industrial resources from Europe and selling it its energy supplies. As the negative effects smoothed out, so did the attitude towards Biden.
Now the swing has swung backwards for two main reasons. The first is still the same – economic anxiety. The bankruptcy of several big banks and the depreciation of the dollar have triggered a wave of new pessimistic forecasts that have hit the president’s rating like a sledgehammer.
Some are even prophesying a new global financial crisis, such as the ever-present Donald Trump.
And Trump is also the second possible reason for the collapse of the Biden ratings. More precisely the fact that Trump could be arrested.
This is something unprecedented for Americans: never before have former presidents or major presidential candidates been arrested, and Trump is both. That said, the eccentric billionaire has been accused of many things, but it is the suspicion that could spill over into an arrest that seems most drawn out.
During the 2016 election campaign, former porn actress Stormy Daniels blackmailed Trump with threats to reveal their affair. Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen paid her $130,000 to keep quiet and then betrayed the chief and made the fact public. Technically, this is a violation of campaign finance rules, since a candidate’s spending (including on his image) must be declared. In the US, this is a serious cause for arrest, but so far Trump is saved by the fact that Cohen cannot prove that the money paid actually belonged to Trump and not to himself.
The ridiculousness of the allegations has made the version of Trump, his supporters and the vast majority of Republicans that this is a conspiracy compelling. Allegedly, the White House and the Democratic Party (the process is indeed going on in a tightly liberal New York) are cracking down on their primary opponent in fear of his 2024 re-election bid. As a result, Biden’s approval rating has plummeted, while Trump’s rating, on the other hand, has risen. Americans are impressionable people.
In reality, what is happening could certainly be called a conspiracy against Trump. But first and foremost, it is a conspiracy against Biden’s new presidential term.
Preparations for the next US presidential election follow a simple formula: If Trump remains the Republican favourite, Biden will be re-elected for a second term. Trump is the only possible candidate the incumbent can beat, despite his age.
Trump will also be quite old by the time of the election – 78, the same age as Biden was when he became president. He will carry with him the weight of his mistakes, his obnoxious nature, the steady hatred of half the country. He is brave, but he could well lose to Biden again. Worse, it is the most likely scenario for a billionaire.
But any other serious “younger, quieter” Republican candidate would not stand a chance against Biden. Under such circumstances, there is no way the Democratic Party leadership would allow the incumbent to make it to the final race and would rebuild its political machine to accommodate an alternative Democratic candidate who would have a chance against Trump and any other Republican.
That Trump’s ratings are rising because of the scandalous case should not be misleading. Strictly speaking, under US law he would be able to run for president even from prison, but it is unlikely that he would actually go to prison, at most he would be released on bail immediately. But under a massive legal attack (the case of sex with a pornographer is not the first and certainly not the last) he will not be able to realize one of his main trump cards – his charisma. Thousands of thousands of live rallies, public appearances, closeness to the crowd – this is what brought him victory in 2016. Outside of this, not only Ron DeSantis, but also smaller candidates will beat Trump in the primaries.
If what is happening now in the US is indeed a conspiracy, it is a conspiracy against gerontocracy in American politics. Whatever replaces it, there is little chance of a radical change in Washington’s attitude toward Russia. But without a serious renewal of the political elite, there can be no way out of the global escalation at all. So let the conspiracy succeed – it will not make things worse, and Biden is better off losing. Lose to anyone.
Dmitry Bavyrin, VZGLYAD
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