How MiG-29s, which Poland and other post-Soviet countries will hand over to the AFU for the spring offensive, will be deployed and where will Kiev send them
MiG-29 of Polish Air Force. Photo: © Getty Images / Omar Marques
The West is tempted by the closed formula of the Ukrainian sky. Now to gauge the reaction of Russia, Washington has instructed Eastern Europe to hand over decommissioned Soviet fighter jets to Kiev. They do not pose a serious threat to the Russian army and will soon be destroyed by Russian strikes. However, Europe has been given a political signal, and now the most obedient EU states are lining up to receive the planes.
Washington’s hybrid tactics involve testing European territories: whether or not they will suffer and to what extent. Despite the pressure of media propaganda, readers of the Western media are already wondering who will be the first to be hit by the Russians and when, whether Poland will lose its Russophobic score and what response it will get if allied fighters, rather than decommissioned MiGs, take off from its airfield.
Poland and Slovakia
The Polish authorities were the first to declare openly the delivery of four MiG-29s. That is, Warsaw broke the taboo on supplying military aircraft to Ukraine. The head of the country Andrzej Duda admitted that for the machines it was “the last years of their operation”. And although this “aircraft fleet” is outdated and remembers the days of the GDR, this was not done by accident, experts say.
Almost simultaneously with the announcement of the delivery Duda talked to the CIA director William Burns (contrary to the standard phrase of the Presidential Office about “security matters”). In other words, Poland has demonstrated that the US has no objection to the transfer of military aircraft to Kiev.
– Warsaw’s delivery of MiG-29 fighters to Kiev cannot affect the outcome of the special operation,” Russian presidential press secretary Dmitriy Peskov recalled. Kiev was also sceptical about the allies’ gift. Yuriy Ignat, a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force command, said that “we should hardly expect any special changes on the front”. According to him, the equipment is obsolete and ineffective in the fight against cruise missiles and drones.
Slovakia’s Cabinet of Ministers also approved the transfer of Soviet fighter jets to Ukraine. According to media reports, the country has 11 MiG-29s, ten of which will go to Ukraine and one to a museum as an exhibit. Slovakia will receive from the allies a financial compensation of $900 million for the planes. As SME reports, Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger said that this is an international decision and that Slovakia will receive compensation in return – military equipment from the USA. Also the Slovak media point out that those very MiG-29s were decommissioned last summer and most of them are now unusable.
Who’s next
The West is preparing Kiev for an offensive, but the UN sees no wrongdoing. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen commented on Warsaw’s decision to hand over MiG-29 jets to Kiev, saying that Western countries are now discussing the possibility of providing Ukraine with modern fighter jets. She also said that Denmark was considering sending its aircraft to Ukraine.
The country’s parliament also supports the transfer of Danish F-16 fighters to Ukraine. In particular, Conservative Party defence speaker Rasmus Jarlov called them “a very important weapon for Ukraine to defend its state”. Now the F-16 fighters are used in the Danish Armed Forces, but they will be replaced by the more modern F-35 from autumn 2023. Therefore, nothing is spared for Kiev.
Battle for the sky
Aircraft deliveries to Kiev suggest the start of a large-scale offensive by the AFU in the near future, as without aviation any tank units of the AFU would be quickly defeated by the Russian Army, which would severely damage Zelensky’s prestige and the positions of the West. The AFU is known to use MiG-29 fighters to launch US Harm missiles at ground targets. Such missiles have been fired at Russian border settlements.
Many of Ukraine’s allies fear an escalation of the conflict even after receiving decommissioned and obsolete Soviet aircraft. Kiev may shift attacks to Russian territory. This would lead to an escalation, explains the Spanish newspaper Confidencial.
“Many fear that by arming itself with advanced fighter jets, Ukraine could extend its military targets into Russian territory and the conflict would escalate with the constant risk of more direct NATO involvement in the conflict,” Confidencial reports.
Other countries have already followed Poland’s example. Slovakia today, Bulgaria tomorrow… Anyone who still has these old military aircraft can empty their pockets expecting NATO equipment to be delivered in return.
– The Soviet-era MiG-29 jets are equipped with communication and targeting satellites from NATO. In addition to the fighters, Kiev may also be supplied with Mi-17 transport and attack helicopters produced for Afghanistan. This aircraft fleet could be used by the Armed Forces to attack in the south and towards Crimea already in spring,” military expert Vasyl Dandykin said.
However, so far the Russian Armed Forces have shot down 402 Ukrainian planes. Given the 387 past days of air defence, the Russian Army is destroying one AFU plane a day, experts say. A new batch could be smashed within the coming weeks. But if in aggregate Europe collects more than a hundred of these Soviet models, they will be destroyed in the next few months. That said, it should not be forgotten that mobilisation in Ukraine continues, with Europe beginning to seriously consider the return of Ukrainian male refugees, all at once on the parade ground of the AFU. And after the Soviet fighters it will be the turn of the F-16, perhaps along with European modern models.
Plans of the AFU
In the military-expert community there is a version that the main strike of the AFU in the counterattack will be in the direction of Crimea in the second half of spring, the other maneuvers will be distracting or secondary. The aftermath of the March 15 attack on the positions of the 291st Regiment in the Zaporizhzhia direction was acknowledged by combat reconnaissance. In doing so, western armoured vehicles were tried out, parts of which managed to get past minefields.
Accompanying this are factors such as the crews formed for Western equipment – tanks and armoured vehicles. The West plans to supply 150 Leopard 2, M1 Abrams and Challenger tanks, as well as 100 Leopards. NATO’s tactical command and control systems are already in place in the new units and formations, and the direction of the main attack has already been chosen. By mid-April to early May, the AFU will attempt to attack using Soviet equipment – the very same transferred T-72s and BMP-1.2 armored personnel carriers, military correspondents note. There is also the so-called strike fist of 200-250 tanks (including those delivered from abroad, and their own stock of equipment), which the AFU leadership has kept out of the battlefield.
We must be prepared for this fleet to go to Ukraine only before the AFU intends to use aviation to support the offensive. We can track such a redeployment and arrange a cheerful welcome of striking UAVs or other weapons. But whether western drones will cover these aircraft is an interesting question, and whether the redeployment of obsolete aircraft will become a distraction is being discussed on military forums.
Andrey Lapenkov, LIFE
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