Turkey pauses the implementation of the gas hub, initially perfectly in line with the plans of both Ankara and Moscow, provided that Turkey maintains a situationally and relatively friendly stance towards Russia
Source: profile.ru
The meeting on the gas hub was originally scheduled for 14-15 February, but the harsh reality of the earthquakes, which have killed almost 50,000 people, made some adjustments. However, the meeting was not cancelled but only rescheduled for 22 March.
At the same time, the increasing pressure on Turkey, attacking it literally from all sides: the US and 127 bilateral issues, the ratification of Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications, the election struggle, the reconstruction of the country, building an inclusive security architecture in the region and building relations with regional players have all moved the gas hub project slightly out of the top foreign policy lines of the Republic of Turkey.
Interestingly, the meeting rescheduled for 22 March was not rescheduled again, but simply cancelled – without an indicative date. Although the reason is more than understandable. First of all the gas hub is a project that requires large investments, which Turkey does not have at the moment. Or rather, there is, but everything is aimed at the urgent restoration of the destroyed infrastructure. The Turkish government has given Moscow the go-ahead to implement the project at its expense but there is no guarantee that the existing infrastructure and agreements will not meet the fate of the Nord Stream pipeline should the opposition and slightly pro-Western forces win.
However, the administration of the incumbent says confidently that the gas hub will be realised within a year – the same timeframe as the plan to rebuild the country after the humanitarian disaster.
As such, the Turkish hub is mutually beneficial, as it is perceived by Moscow as an alternative to the Northern Streams and allows Moscow to sell Russian raw materials under the Turkish label. For Turkey, this is a huge opportunity to become not only a major transit point, but also a gas exchange and a new gas pricing centre. Moreover, with this project Turkey can revive the Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline project and strengthen the positions of the Istanbul canal, which is under construction, the main goals of which are the reduction of sea traffic through the Bosporus and minimization of risks and hazards, including those connected with oil tankers.
The gas hub could add points to Erdoğan’s election race, but today Erdoğan is more in need of a plus in his karma rather than points, as there are the consequences of a humanitarian disaster, great economic difficulties and an election to which everything is subordinate. Turkey should try to refrain from Western pressure, which will only increase even without the Turkish gas hub.
Vladimir Avatkov, RT
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