The warring Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations. The agreement was reached on March 10 at talks in Beijing. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, who took part in the mediation effort, called the deal a “victory for peace.”
The reconciliation was partly the result of President Raisi’s recent trip to China. Mohammad Jamshidi, Iran’s deputy chief of staff for political affairs, recalled that the ideas discussed in Beijing are now bearing fruit.
The official statement did not mention specific concessions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But there is no doubt that the elimination of tension will become a serious obstacle to the intervention of non-regional countries in the Persian Gulf. A major diplomatic breakthrough achieved as a result of negotiations with China reduces the likelihood of armed conflict between Middle Eastern rivals.
In the first reaction, the US said it supported “de-escalation” in West Asia. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby clarified that the United States is seeking an end to the war in Yemen, which is likely to happen in light of this agreement. However, he downplayed China’s role in the deal. “This is not about China, and I’m not going to describe China’s role here,” Kirby said.
The agreement has significant implications for the civil war in Yemen, which has embroiled Iran and Saudi Arabia. Today, this is perhaps the most notable unresolved issue between the two. Iran is helping the Houthi rebels who are fighting the government backed by the Saudi coalition. The ceasefire between the parties expired last October; while the situation is relatively calm, but with the risk of another escalation. The Saudis have long insisted that the restoration of diplomatic relations with Iran should include Iran’s contribution to ending the war in Yemen. Riyadh hopes that Tehran will stop the Houthis’ drone and missile attacks on the kingdom and help in negotiations with them.
As for Iran’s nuclear dossier, here the US and its European allies will apparently have to make room at the negotiating table. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud opined that talks on the Iranian nuclear program in their current form are dying; it would be expedient to change their format by including in the negotiations other regional powers affected by Iran’s nuclear program. Prince Faisal does not think that the Saudis will have additional demands on Iran’s civilian nuclear program beyond those put forward by the West, but would like at the same table to “make it clear to the Iranians that this is not only the concern of distant countries, but also the concern of their neighbors.” . The Saudis are determined to participate in the negotiations.
In Israel, this was perceived with apprehension. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called the agreement a “political victory” for Iran and a “serious and dangerous development for Israel.” “This deals a death blow to efforts to build a regional coalition against Iran,” he said. Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid called the agreement a failure of Israeli diplomacy.
Hours before announcing the deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia revealed its terms for normalizing relations with Israel. The proposal calls for security guarantees from Washington, assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program, and fewer restrictions on US arms sales. Riyadh leaves the door open to maintaining relations with America, but makes it clear that it can turn to China on occasion.
Improved relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will also affect the protracted civil war in Syria. The Saudi kingdom has long supported Sunni groups fighting against the government of Bashar al-Assad, backed by Iran and Russia. The war has reached a stalemate in large parts of Syria, with more Arab states seeking to re-establish ties with Damascus. The resumption of these ties could affect the situation in Iraq and Lebanon, where Iranian-backed militias operate.
China is the largest buyer of Saudi oil and is very interested in ensuring that the region does not plunge into chaos, as it did in 2019, when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked as a result of the Iran-Saudi confrontation. Xi visited Riyadh last December for meetings with Gulf Arab leaders crucial to China’s energy supply.
The Iranian-Saudi reconciliation is a victory for Chinese diplomacy, highlights Beijing’s growing influence in the Middle East, and challenges America.
Nikolay Bobkin, FSK
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