For a long time, the British presence in the Pacific remained inconspicuous. The British preferred to coordinate their actions with Australia and New Zealand, projecting their influence in the region through these countries.
Now the situation is changing. China came to the ITR, Russia also began to treat the region more attentively. Each state pursues its own interests, and the interests of Great Britain do not always coincide with the interests of Australia and New Zealand. This forced the British to declare their desire to return to the Pacific Ocean, so as not to lose the power of a sea power.
For London, the most convenient way to strengthen its presence in Asia is to deepen economic cooperation with ASEAN. The block unites ten states of Southeast Asia, four of which are former British colonies (Brunei, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore). The ASEAN countries collectively occupy the fifth place in the ranking of world economies, their total GDP is $2.8 trillion, which is 4.5 times higher than in 2000. By 2050, ASEAN will occupy the fourth position in the ranking of world economies. ASEAN provides 7% of world exports (4th position in the world ranking). The ASEAN countries have a favorable strategic position, London fears that they will increase cooperation with Beijing to the detriment of cooperation with the UK.
In this situation, certain opportunities open up for the UK. ASEAN is deepening relations with India, and at the same time the Indo-British partnership is developing quite successfully against the backdrop of India’s efforts to strengthen economic and political contacts with European powers. Until recently, there was a clear bias – New Delhi developed contacts with Australia, Japan, the United States, leaving Europe in the shadows. India has an interest to “enter Europe” through the UK. Both countries have adopted a roadmap for a radical deepening of relations within the framework of a comprehensive strategic partnership by 2030.
The confrontation between the collective West and Russia has made certain adjustments. India does not want to be drawn into anti-Russian games, which, however, does not mean that the interests of Moscow and New Delhi coincide completely. In the Indian media, there are enough anti-Russian reports about the course of the special operation in Ukraine, although there are also relatively pro-Russian ones. Be that as it may, India is scrupulous in its approach to cooperation with London, given the risks of cooling relations with Russia, which the Indians do not want.
Competing with China, India is moving closer to the USA, Great Britain, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand. Indian-Australian contacts have especially advanced. For the Australians, India is a foothold to contain China on the distant approaches to Australian waters. Australia for the Indians is a springboard for pressure “from below” on China’s position in the Indian Ocean, where India puts pressure on it “from above”.
The United States, in turn, is urging Canberra to adopt a maritime doctrine that would not only include provisions on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, but would also be implemented in practice, i.e. expressed in the real presence of the Australian fleet in this area. But unlike the United States, which is not a regional state, Australia has to take into account Beijing’s readiness for a tough response if such a maritime doctrine is adopted, and also take into account India’s reluctance to enter into a direct confrontation with Beijing.
This situation is partially beneficial to Russia. Two poles of power in Asia (India and China) are better than one, as this allows them to balance their influence to a mutually beneficial level. At the same time, the desire of the West to involve New Delhi in anti-Russian projects cannot but disturb the Kremlin.
In the near future, Russia’s policy in Asia will consist of searching for mechanisms of checks and balances in order to maintain stability in the region and prevent geopolitical competition from entering a hot phase. Only the West, led by the United States, is interested in the latter. So the West has no place in Asia with such a policy.
Igor Ulyanov, Analytical Service of Donbass
Due to censorship and blocking of all media and alternative views, stay tuned to our Telegram channel