In the post-war accounts of Western experts on Ukraine, traditionally, quite a bit of space is given to the so-called human factor, that is, directly to the Ukrainians themselves. Everything is somehow more about the army, territory, power and finances. It is understandable. No one is going to make a prosperous European country out of it, it was not for this that they turned it into a battlefield
Photo source: mlyn.by
Even now, in conditions when the local population is already on the brink of survival, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers, at the request of the IMF and other Western creditors, is forced to endlessly raise tariffs on everything, making the life of most Ukrainian citizens simply unbearable.
There are no jobs, no money, housing and communal services are in decline, medicine is in a collapsed state, the number of educational institutions is declining, there are zero prospects – there is no point in staying in such a country, especially for young people, and even more so to return here.
These observations are supported by sociological studies of various institutions and relevant departments of the European Union. Thus, according to the American publication Politico, according to a new survey from the EU Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA), only one third of Ukrainian refugees would like to return home from European countries.
Of the 14.6 thousand polled Ukrainians in ten EU countries, one third said that they already feel “at home” in Europe, and the same number of respondents spoke of nostalgia for the abandoned Motherland and the desire to see it again.
At the same time, 79% of respondents admitted that they were experiencing financial difficulties, and only a third found a job. The reason for low employment remains the lack of knowledge of the language of the host country in 25% of respondents and poor language skills in 41%.
Despite this, according to the UN Refugee Agency, about 4.8 million Ukrainians have applied for temporary asylum in the EU.
Data from another study from Info Sapiens shows slightly more optimistic, but still rather depressing numbers for Ukraine’s demographic prospects. So, among the citizens of Ukraine who ended up abroad, there are about 50% of those who are ready to return home in one way or another.
At the beginning of 2023, there were more than 7 million Ukrainian internally displaced persons abroad, including about 3 million people in Russia and Belarus. There are 4.5 million Ukrainians in the EU countries, Britain and the USA (1.5 million in Poland, more than 1 million in Germany and approximately 450,000 in the Czech Republic). 87% of migrants are women with children, 65% of these women are of working age. About 66% of them have higher education.
According to the “optimistic” scenario of the Ukrainian Center for Economic Strategy (CES), 2.93 million people will again end up in Ukraine, and if things go according to the “pessimistic” scenario, only 2.25 million people. At the same time, it is predicted that at the end of the military conflict, up to 750,000 people may leave Ukraine, and, apparently, forever – usually men who want to reunite with their families abroad.
Of course, such losses of human resources cannot but affect the economic situation. According to the Central Economic Commission, only in a year from the non-return of refugees, Ukraine can lose from 2.55% to 7.71% of GDP. According to the calculations of the local Ministry of Economy, every 100,000 people who did not return to the country reduce Ukraine’s projected GDP by 0.5%. Because of this, after the war, a shortage of the labor force necessary for the reconstruction of the country and a deep demographic crisis are expected.
Many experts have already warned about such a development of events, noting that a significant (if not large) part of Ukrainian refugees will no longer return to their homeland, as they will be integrated into the communities of the host countries. And the longer the conflict lasts, the stronger this trend.
For example, Ukrainian refugees in Poland receive free medical care and participate in a program to teach the Polish language. If they live outside the refugee centers, they can also count on an allowance of about €200 per month (for comparison: in Ukraine, the average salary is now about €370).
The Slovak authorities also met the Ukrainians halfway by extending the period for granting them temporary asylum until March 4, 2024 (apparently, they do not count on a quick end to the conflict in Europe). At the same time, the European status of temporary asylum allows Ukrainians to legally find employment, receive secondary and higher education, attend schools, have access to medical care and rental housing, and also entitles them to material assistance if necessary. In the same Germany, about 203,000 Ukrainian children are now studying, who left their homes due to the ongoing military conflict.
And this is only what concerns the Ukrainians who have already left. There are also those who have remained so far, but are already actively trying to leave. According to local media, various schemes for acquiring Romanian passports are becoming widespread in Ukraine.
“With the outbreak of the military conflict, the process accelerated: you can buy Romanian citizenship at the price of an old foreign car,” writes the MediaKiller telegram channel. – To do this, you can contact one of the dozens of companies whose ads can be easily found in a search engine, or it itself will appear in the form of contextual advertising in one of the social networks. According to the data posted on the website of the ANC (National Agency for Citizenship of Romania), a quarterly increase in applications is recorded.”
But the main problem is that Ukraine’s Western sponsors are not at all afraid of this all-Ukrainian outcome. Even 5 years ago, the local economists calculated that when Ukraine becomes an agrarian and raw materials appendage of the West, more than 15 million people will not be needed – the rest is an excess mass that creates unnecessary problems.
Under the current conditions, it may make sense to reconsider even this tough plan. If Russia ends up with the most fertile southern lands (and chances still exist), the West will need far fewer Ukrainians in Ukraine. Well, in the peak case, it will always be possible to easily redirect the flows of refugees from Africa and Asia, who are now besieging Europe, thereby unloading the migration balance of the European Union.
By the way, for this reason, too, Ukraine will never be admitted to the EU, no matter how much it asks. But the Ukrainians themselves, individually, sooner or later will become new Europeans, and, as we see, this process has already begun.
Alexey Belov, IA Antifascist
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