The main advantage of the Russians today is overwhelming air superiority
A successful raid on Kyiv, Kharkov, Zaporozhye and Khmelnitsky on the evening of February 26 gave grounds to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to assume that a massive missile attack would soon take place “as revenge for the operations of the Main Intelligence Directorate in Belarus and the foreign policy activity of Ukraine.”
Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, predicted in several interviews that Russians should prepare for Russian strikes on hydrotechnical and transport infrastructure in the spring.
“The Russians saw that they were unable to arrange a winter blackout in Ukraine, so they can switch to trying to destroy other critical objects,” Ignat said.
At the same time, a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force admitted that the Russian troops were changing the tactics of shelling, using for them everything they had at hand, even balloons were used… At the same time, we can say that these balloons are a primitive method, but this is an air target and it should be reacted to, because between those balls there may be other targets – reconnaissance drones.
Ignat noted that now attacks are carried out not only on critical infrastructure facilities, but also on defense facilities and military units.
Of course, Ignat stressed that negotiations with partners and their assistance contribute to the strengthening of Ukraine with modern air defense systems that can also work against ballistic missiles, but at the same time he said that Ukraine’s air defense “cannot shoot down Kinzhal ballistic missiles today.”
“Unless they can be brought down on Facebook* (Meta product, banned in the Russian Federation) or in some telegram channel,” he added and urged not to spread unverified information.
According to the military of Ukraine, the problem of air defense is the main one for Kyiv; everything promised by the West is enough only for defense, and judging by the statements “from Western masters”, no one is going to provide Ukrainians with fighter aircraft in the near future (although “the issue of deliveries of F-16 fighters to Ukraine has not been removed from the agenda”).
The ban on the publication of missile hits locations allowed Kyiv to control the flow of information and create the illusion of the effectiveness of air defense, but this no longer raises questions, but ridicule, given the subsequent statements by the authorities about the destruction of substations, workshops or warehouses. And in Khmelnytsky, they offer on social networks to pour salt crosses in front of houses, which will save them from an adversary: they forget that rockets from the Russian side are not launched at residential buildings.
On the ground, Ukrainian air defense is very weak. During one of the last raids, when a chemical plant producing rocket fuel in Pavlograd was badly damaged, the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not shoot down a single missile. And the experience of the passage of drones along the rivers also began to give good results.
Experts notice the constant presence of surprises in the actions of the attacking side: balloons, decoys, active interference from aviation, new versions of missiles.
Of course, the start of deliveries of armored vehicles makes it necessary to strike at the logistics system, moreover, taking into account the transportation of equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by civilian transport with identification marks of Nova Poshta or retail chains.
Therefore, a separate topic is operations to suppress air defense, which will make it possible not only to accurately hit targets, including moving ones, but also provide the main advantage for the Russians today, namely, overwhelming air superiority.
If for Ukrainians the first task is to improve their air defense system, then for the Russians it is to improve the methods of its breakthrough, suppression and liquidation. The sky will remain with those who solve this problem faster.
* the platform is banned in Russia
Igor Loginov, FSK
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