The intelligence services of the United States and Ukraine unexpectedly disagreed. If Washington suspects Beijing of organizing military supplies to Russia, then in Kyiv “there is no such data”, just as there are no claims against China. The policy towards Beijing is an issue on which there can be no unity between Ukraine and the West. Ukrainians are really afraid that China will join participation in the special operation
Russia does not have weapons and ammunition from China, Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) said. But, honestly, where did the GUR get intelligence? All that is, is the data of the US intelligence services and, more broadly, NATO. And they, oddly enough, have a different opinion.
For a week now, also referring to the data of the special services, the Americans have been expressing fears that China is supplying or is going to supply weapons to Russia, of which the People’s Liberation Army of the PRC has many (and for the most part they are complementary with ours, since the basis is the same – Soviet).
Thus, the authorities of the United States and Ukraine entered into a public debate, which clearly does not correspond to the position of Kyiv and its subordinate role in relation to Washington and Langley. When else was this?
However, this is not about intelligence. The GUR statement is purely political. And it was made, most likely, in order to be heard in Beijing. The Ukrainians do not want to anger the Chinese dragon, because they know for sure that he is really thinking about helping the RF Armed Forces in the case of the special operation.
This directly follows from the statement of the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, voiced by him after a meeting with China’s chief diplomat Wang Yi.
“We had a frank conversation in Munich… Wang Yi said that China does not give weapons to a country that is at war. He said that they are not giving Russia weapons now and will not. This is what he told me, emphasizing that this is the principle of China’s foreign policy,” Borrell said.
But at the same time, Comrade Wang asked:
“Why are you worried that I can give weapons to Russia if you give weapons to Ukraine?” “I had to explain to him the big difference, tell him what a threat the war in Ukraine poses to us,” the head of EU diplomacy complained.
It remains an open question how convincing Borrell was. But this task was difficult for him, perhaps impossible. For at least two reasons.
First, Beijing knows (everyone already knows) that the preliminary agreements between Moscow and Kiev on Ukraine’s non-entry into NATO were torpedoed by the West, where they decided to bet on the military defeat of Russia. In other words, if what is happening poses a threat to the EU, it is only because the EU, at the suggestion of the United States, provoked this threat.
Secondly, traditional Western songs about sovereignty, territorial integrity and international law are not suitable for Chinese ears. Due, for example, to the fact that all these principles are ignored by the United States in relation to China, as soon as it comes to Taiwan. Weapons are also supplied there, although legally it is part of the PRC.
As for the “principle of China’s foreign policy” allegedly mentioned by Wang Yi, two circumstances must also be taken into account in his case.
First, this principle has been repeatedly revised. And we are talking not only about the long-standing war in Korea, but also about Beijing’s support of forces oriented towards it in Asia, Africa and Latin America, including those countries that do not get out of wars and civil armed conflicts at all.
Second: Wang Yi is a very experienced and respected professional in the PRC, whose power comes from the party, not from the government (the State Council; the post of Foreign Minister is Qin Gang). But the modern CCP is devoid of the old system of balances, and its policies are not a compromise of several groups within the elite. Over China, as under Mao, rose the red emperor – Comrade Xi Jinping, and Comrade Wang is not included in the “seven” governing the country – the standing committee of the CPC Politburo, composed of the people of Comrade Xi. His opinion is very weighty, but the decision is not his.
Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is aware of this. At the very least, he seeks a personal meeting with Comrade Xi, which he has already been denied. In fact, it follows from the statement of the Chinese Foreign Ministry that negotiations on the settlement of the conflict must begin for this (which Kiev does not want, together with NATO, having staked on a “spring counteroffensive in the direction of Crimea”).
By rejecting China’s proposed peace plan for Ukraine, the United States and the European Union have shown who really runs Kiev, they wrote about this in the South China Morning Post.
At the same time, in the Chinese direction, the interests of the United States and Kyiv coincide only partially – hence the disagreement about the role of China in the conflict.
The main goal of the United States is Russia, and Ukraine is just a tool and consumable.
Another goal that has been left for the future is China, the opposition to which is an independent value for the United States.
From the point of view of the Washington strategist, the participation of the PRC in the Ukrainian conflict through the supply of weapons is not something fatal. Such participation may even benefit the Western mission, as it will be the reason for the introduction of new “weakening” sanctions by the PRC.
The Kiev regime risks in this situation much more than the United States, so the possibility of arms supplies from China for the RF Armed Forces is taken more seriously. At the same time, he has no goal of quarreling with China and has no desire to incur the wrath of the Celestial Empire: while they are provoking in Washington, in Kyiv they cover sharp corners with cotton wool.
Hence the delicacy, unusual for Ukraine, in statements regarding China. If all power in such a powerful country belongs to one person, any careless word can tip the scales in favor of Russia. And it’s not that Comrade Xi is a petty tyrant, it’s not. It’s just that in China they are really sensitive to any external criticism, and to teachings on the topic “how to behave” – even with Russia, even with Taiwan.
Probably, this is what the GUR comes from. In general, the intelligence services are mostly intelligent people who are prone to detailed analysis. But not only scouts live in Ukraine, and you can be sure that very soon the national character, polished by a sense of impunity, will show itself.
Zelensky’s talkative adviser Mikhail Podolyak has already managed to threaten Beijing with an “aggressive reaction” in case of Russian assistance. And before the end of the week, Ukrainian representatives and the media will have time to say such things about China that in Beijing there will certainly be a desire to arm anyone against Ukraine, even if no one asked for it.
Dmitry Bavyrin, VIEW
Due to censorship and blocking of all media and alternative views, stay tuned to our Telegram channel