Over the past few days, the pseudo-Belarusian media (“Belorusskiy Gajun”, Belsat etc.), associated with Western psychological warfare centres, have reported two significant incidents
© Sputnik
First, about an alleged exchange of fire between Ukrainian and Belarusian border guards that resulted in the killing of a Ukrainian soldier.
Secondly, about a drone raid on Machulishchi airfield, which allegedly resulted in damage to an A-50U airborne early warning aircraft (of which there are only six in the Air Force).
The details are staggering: “The head of BYPOL (a terrorist organisation banned in Belarus) Aleksandr Azarov… confirmed to the Belsat publication the information about the UAVs. “They were drones. The participants of the operation are Belarusians, participants of the “Victory” plan, they are now safe outside the country.” In short, they came up with it, they confirmed it themselves. Interestingly, Ukrainian sources report that the raid was carried out from the Ukrainian side and that GUR was responsible for it (of course, Ukraine never officially admits anything).
Unfortunately, the official information is delayed (Belarusian colleagues point out that this kind of throw-in is done on weekends, when it is difficult to get an official response).
According to unofficial information from the Belarusian side, there was no exchange of fire, and the incident was reduced to the blowing up of a Ukrainian border guard on his own minefield.
At the same time, the possibility of similar incidents cannot be ruled out. Colonel Valery Revenko, Assistant to the Minister of Defence for International Military Cooperation, points out that “the probability of armed provocations, which may escalate into border incidents, has been high for a long time. And while previously we only recorded provocations, we have now moved on to responding to them adequately.
An accident involving snowploughs took place at the airfield (i.e. the fact of the accident itself is not denied).
Again, from a technical point of view, there is nothing impossible about a strike on Machulishchy. Especially taking into account the existing facts of strikes on Russian airfields of long-range aviation and Ukraine’s nervous reaction to the activity of the Russian air force at this airfield (besides A-50s, MiG-31Ks equipped with the complex of hypersonic weapons “Dagger” are based there – any take-off of them leads to the air-raid alarm in Ukraine).
On the whole, the situation is quite bizarre.
Ukraine is by no means interested in directly joining Belarus in the conflict.
It is not that the Ukrainian command is much afraid of the Belarusian army – it is a peacetime army with almost no military experience (unlike the Russian armed forces, which did conduct limited military operations in Syria and military and police operations in Kazakhstan) and which is preparing mainly for defensive actions. One way or another, however, we are talking about a significant stretching of the front line.
Already now the AFU has to maintain a large group of forces on the border with Belarus (there are estimates of up to 15 thousand troops – not too many against the background of almost a million mobilized into the uniformed services), to spend money on engineering equipment of the territory (now additional mine clearance is being done at the depth of two kilometres), and to the exclusion zone around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant is being moved scarce heavy equipment. Thus, the Belarusian army plays its role in the EIA, even without engaging in combat operations.
These measures are partly directed against the Russian troops, who may re-start an attack from the Belarusian territory, but in general, the behaviour of the Ukrainian side looks as if it provokes Belarus. After all, Alexander Lukashenko said on July 2 last year: “If you dare to strike, as they are planning to do, at Gomel in the south, at the Mozyr refinery, at the airport, the airfield in Luninets or Brest, the answer will be instantaneous. Instantaneous, simply, in one second!”
Why does Ukraine need provocations?
Obviously, the Ukrainian side has been “asked” to do so by its Western partners.
On the one hand, it is an element of subversion against Belarus – the Belarusian society is indoctrinated that the allied relations with Russia make the country an object of strikes by the AFU. Thus, it increases internal political tensions and fuels the Russophobic sentiments present in some segments of Belarusian society.
On the other hand, Ukrainian provocations distract the Belarusian Armed Forces from solving more important tasks related to defence in the west and north. Belarusian political analyst Aleksandr Shpakovsky writes in his Telegram channel: “At the moment we consider the scenario of a military clash between NATO and Russia on our territory as unlikely. At the same time, as the president told Western journalists: “We remember perfectly well how your compatriots led by Hitler attacked our country, and we believed to the last minute that there would be no war.
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