Analysis of an article in the American newspaper The Washington Post
“As the first anniversary of a Russian military sting approaches, U.S. officials are explaining to Ukrainian leaders that a tipping point is approaching when the course of the conflict must be changed. Meanwhile, despite promising to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” conservatives in the U.S. House of Representatives, now controlled by the Republican Party, have already pledged to stop supporting Ukraine. It is also unclear how much Europe is ready to finance this military conflict in the long term,” writes the American newspaper The Washington Post (WP).
Several U.S. officials told the Washington Post that all previous aid packages to Ukraine were bipartisan, and that Congress has been allocating more money to Kiev for the past year than the Biden administration had asked for. However, times are changing, and now Washington will try to explain to the leadership of Ukraine a simple truth – assistance cannot continue in such volumes all the time. If only because it is unlikely that the White House will be able to achieve last year’s level of support from Congress.
As for Biden’s phrase, which promised to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” it refers “to the scale of the conflict, not the scale of assistance,” the official, who asked not to be named, explained.
However, the Biden administration is still trying to get Congress to approve another $10 billion aid package for Kyiv. The White House is sure that in the spring there will be a turning point in hostilities and Ukraine should not miss the moment and go on a counteroffensive, for which the Ukrainian army will need a lot of weapons, and Kiev – a lot of money, WP notes. It is assumed that Kyiv will spend this money by the summer, and getting congressional approval for the next aid package will be much more difficult. Moreover, Western leaders are increasingly expressing doubts about sending heavy weapons to Ukraine. The publication recalls that at the end of last year, Biden and Blinken had to make every effort to convince the West of the need to provide tanks and missiles to Ukraine. Whether they will be able to persuade their allies once again is unknown.
The White House is trying to hide all differences so that no one suspects that there are cracks within NATO. On the contrary, wherever possible, the unity of the alliance is demonstrated, although this unity is not even on the question of where Kyiv should concentrate all its forces and resources in the first place. For the sake of justice, it should be noted that reaching an understanding with the leadership of Ukraine is not always easy and simple, the article says.
“For several months, Kyiv has spent a huge amount of resources and people on the defense of Artyomovsk in the east of Donbass. According to US military analysts, it is impossible to simultaneously defend Artyomovsk and launch a spring counteroffensive to retake territories that the United States considers more important. However, Zelenskiy gives the defense of Artyomovsk a symbolic meaning, believing that the loss of this city will deal a blow to the morale of the Ukrainians. Zelenskiy said late last week that his troops would fight to the bitter end to hold the city, which Russia had already virtually taken,” wrote Yasmeen Abutaleb and John Hudson, authors of the article.
Senior American officials interviewed by the authors of the article assure that they respect Zelensky’s opinion. But at the same time, they are concerned that the defense of a city that does not represent any strategic importance, a city in which only ruins remain, huge resources are being spent, both military and human. And this at a time when the United States is doing its best to train the Ukrainian military to handle Western weapons, preparing the Ukrainian army for the spring offensive, WP emphasizes.
The publication also draws attention to the fact that Zelensky has repeatedly called for the return of Crimea, which became part of Russia in 2014. However, according to US intelligence, the Ukrainian army is currently unable to return this peninsula. This was repeatedly discussed at meetings of the US Congress, there were also attempts to convey this idea to Kyiv, but, apparently, to no avail.
According to the authors, such a discrepancy between goals and capabilities causes fears in the United States, and especially in Europe, that the Ukrainian conflict could drag on for a long time, turning into an unbearable burden for the entire West, which, even without Ukraine, has many of its own problems, including high inflation and unstable energy prices. Therefore, at present, the White House is trying to work out the most suitable course for Kiev, which is to ensure that Ukraine is able to return the maximum number of its territories by force in the very near future, and then sit down at the negotiating table, the newspaper notes. The Biden administration believes that deliveries of Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS systems, as well as various armored vehicles, will help Kyiv fulfill such a plan. The result of the plan, devised in the White House, will be the cessation of hostilities by the end of this year.
“Optimists in the White House believe that Ukraine is able to stop the further advance of Russian troops to the east, return territories in the south and force Russia to agree to end the conflict by the end of the year. But skeptics worry that time is not on Kyiv’s side now, and not only Ukraine, but also Russia is preparing for the spring offensive,” states The Washington Post.
Ella Maistrenko, One Motherland
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